Labour under pressure over 'change' vow for Scotland as 'honeymoon period' declared over

Labour has been urged to use its first party conference in government to prove it can deliver its “change” message for Scotland, as Sir Keir Starmer was accused of "failing to deliver" in his first three months of power.

The Prime Minister’s party will start its conference today in a jubilant mood after the general election result, but facing confronting polling following controversial announcements on retaining the two-child benefit cap and axing the winter fuel allowance for millions.

The conference looms after a difficult week for the Prime Minister, who has faced mounting questions over the amount of gifts accepted. It was confirmed on Friday that Sir Keir and his most senior ministers would no longer accept donations to pay for their clothes, after it was revealed the Prime Minister’s total in accepted gifts, benefits and hospitality had topped £100,000 since December 2019.

Sir Keir Starmer and wife Victoria's willingness to accept gifts from patrons has raised eyebrows (Picture: Carl Court/Getty Images)

Despite this, Labour MPs told The Scotsman they were convinced the party conference, taking place in Liverpool, can remind the public what the party can deliver in government, while also offering hope.

Scottish Secretary Ian Murray said the process of “change” had already begun and would deliver across Scotland to ensure Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar becomes first minister in 2026.

But polling expert Mark Diffley, founder and director of The Diffley Partnership, told The Scotsman Labour were having a “tough time” across the UK. He suggested the strategy of “tough decisions now” could jeopardise Mr Sarwar’s chances of winning in Holyrood in 2026.

A poll published earlier this week by Survation found a majority of Scots do not think the Labour government is "acting in the best interests of Scotland". The survey also found a majority of Scots oppose Labour's cuts to winter fuel payments, and almost half of Labour voters in Scotland think Sir Keir's government has "failed to meet expectations".

The poll, conducted between September 10-13, also found the Labour Party's lead in Scotland had collapsed, dropping nine points in Westminster voting intention. Mr Sarwar’s party also recorded a nine-point fall in Holyrood voting intention, leaving Scottish Labour two points adrift of the SNP.

Mr Diffley said: “The approval rating is nothing that would suggest a honeymoon period, even if they had one to begin with, it’s certainly not apparent anymore. 

“I think they are quite worried about 2026. The notion that the success at the general election would just squeak them through to Holyrood is pretty firmly in check. The most recent polling has the SNP ahead of Labour, certainly in the two polls this week.

“The big picture is, there’s clearly a strategy at the UK level to get the unpopular stuff out the way early on in government, which is not a unique strategy, and I think that would work if it was just a UK party looking at the five-year horizon until the election.

“But if you’ve only got 18 months, which is what Anas has got, it’s a little bit difficult. Getting this unpopular stuff out the way early on has a negative chance on Labour’s chances in 2026. It presents the SNP with an opportunity to recover.

“The Holyrood election will be fought on a two-year Labour government, not 14 years of Tories, and that’s a totally different context, and you can sense the SNP can feel an opportunity.”

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn warned the Prime Minister’s government was “defined by the choices they make”. He said: "The Labour Party has only been in office for three months, but it is already plummeting in the polls as a result of breaking so many promises to voters.

"Sir Keir Starmer has shown he is completely out of touch with people in Scotland by imposing billions of pounds of austerity cuts on pensioners, low-income families and public services, while milking the system for all its worth to get £100,000 of designer clothes and freebies for himself.”

The concerns over strategy are rife among Labour MPs, but so recently after a general election win, few were willing to voice their concerns publicly. However, there is still confidence Downing Street will use the Liverpool conference to assuage concerns.

One minister told The Scotsman: “It’s all been doom and gloom at the moment, but we can and must offer hope, and show how our plans can make it better. It’s not enough to have won. We need to demonstrate the change this government can deliver.”

Mr Murray, the Edinburgh South MP, admitted the process “won’t be easy”. But he vowed his party would be honest with the public and asked voters to imagine what a Labour-led Scottish Government could deliver through working with Westminster.

He said: “On 4th July, Scotland voted for change – to get away from the chaos of a Tory government that had crashed the economy and become mired in sleaze. That process of change has begun. From GB Energy to our plans to Make Work Pay, we’ll deliver security and opportunity for Scotland.

“The process will not be easy. It will mean tough decisions we did not expect nor want to make after the Tories left a £22 billion black hole in the finances, having spent the Treasury reserves three times over by July. But it’s better to be honest and up front with people and take those difficult decisions and treat people’s money with respect.  

“Because if you don’t, you find yourself in the mess the SNP made for themselves - £500 million worth of cuts, £116m from the health budget, £18m from mental health services.”

Mr Murray added: “We need to move beyond a decade of populist politics, of buy-now, pay-later policies. I made resetting the relationship with the Scottish Government a priority. That isn’t about agreeing on every issue or not holding each to account – it’s about doing what the majority of Scots want, their two governments working together. 

“If we can deliver those sorts of results working with a Scottish Government we don’t politically agree with, imagine what Scotland can achieve with two governments who will work together naturally. Imagine Anas Sarwar as First Minister working with Keir Starmer as Prime Minister to deliver better results for Scots. 

“The process of change has begun and leads to Holyrood in 2026.”

Scottish Secretary Ian Murray is confident his party will deliver change | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

This stressing of the difficulty facing the Labour government has been a theme of Sir Keir’s premiership so far, and was echoed by Michael Shanks, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

The Scottish minister compared this conference with the previous year where he arrived as the new MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West after a by-election win just days earlier.

Mr Shanks said: "We always said we can't flick a switch and fix everything. But in two months we've set about creating GB Energy, achieved 131 new renewables projects in the latest auction round, announced ambitious planning reforms, set in train nationalising the railways and much more on dealing with sewage, buses, the broken NHS, our relationship with Europe and border security.

"There's been difficult choices to make and more on the horizon, but that's what government is all about - not ducking the hard decisions and getting on with rebuilding this country".

Former energy secretary, Labour backbencher Barry Gardiner, suggested the mood at conference would be positive and stressed the challenge was now about delivery.

He said: “It’s great that we’ve got rid of a government that was incompetent and damaging the country. The challenge now is a huge one and we have to make sure we are delivering.”

However, MPs don’t necessarily expect this to mean huge rafts of policy. One backbencher claimed the legislative agenda had already been set out, so not to expect any sweeping announcements.

“I think it’s all going to be very exciting, a real celebration of winning, but there won’t be big announcements this close to the King’s Speech, and also with the Budget right around the corner,” the MP said. “I’d expect to see intent, rather than specific promises”.