Rishi Sunak facing difficult by-elections as Labour criticised over child benefit cap

The Prime Minister goes into Thursday expecting to lose two if not three seats.

Rishi Sunak has urged voters to back his plan for the country as the Tories prepared for three difficult by-elections.

Speaking on the day inflation fell, the Prime Minister insisted his approach was working, insisting Jaguar Land Rover’s announcement of a £4 billion battery plant was a “vote of confidence in the UK”.

However, Downing Street are not confident the public will listen, with the UK Government fearing they could lose Uxbridge and South Ruislip to Labour, as well as Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats hope to win the contest in Somerton and Frome.

It came as Sir Keir Starmer was forced to defend his party’s support for maintaining the two child benefit cap, prevents parents from claiming Universal Credit or child tax credit for a third or additional child born after April 2017.

Speaking on Wednesday, Mr Sunak refused to be drawn on speculation he could attempt to reset his premiership by carrying out a Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of by-election defeats.

He said: “You would never expect me to comment on things like that.

“What I’m determined to do is just deliver on the priorities that I set out for the country – halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaking during Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons. Picture: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/PA Wire

“And today, what we saw with the inflation figures is that our plan is working.”

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Consumer Prices Index inflation was 7.9 per cent in June, down from 8.7 per cent in May and its lowest rate since March 2022.

Mr Sunak said: “I know things are difficult for people right now but I’m determined to bring inflation down, today’s figures should give people some comfort that the plan is working. I’m going to stick to the course.”

Asked to rate his performance, Mr Sunak said: “I set out five very clear priorities at the beginning of the year and I’m committed to delivering them.

“It’s for the British public to judge.”

The Prime Minister’s press secretary acknowledged it would be tough for the Tories to hold the three seats on Thursday.

She said: “By-elections, for incumbent governments, are very difficult, that is the nature of them.

“The election that the Conservative Party is most focused on is the general election.”

It came as furious row erupted between Labour and the SNP after Sir Keir confirmed that he would keep the Conservatives’ two-child benefit cap.

After the SNP handed out mugs to journalists comparing Labour welfare policy to China, it was accused of making “crass political jibes steeped in Sinophobia and misogyny”.

Labour’s Sarah Owen, the first MP of south-east Asian descent, took aim at SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn for the mugs and accompanying notes handed to journalists in Westminster.

Photos posted on social media showed a note, on House of Commons paper from Mr Flynn, reading: “The Labour Party has a new range of mugs in production. They’re made in China – just like Sir Keir Starmer’s latest policy.”

China’s one-child policy, implemented nationwide in 1980, sought to limit most Chinese families to one child each to limit population growth. It ended in 2016.

Labour later raised the issue as a point of order in the Commons, pointing out China’s policy saw “196 million sterilisations and 336 million abortions”.

SNP MP Martin Docherty-Hughes, MP for West Dunbartonshire, also made a point of order, asking if “Labour is more rattled by a minor breach of the rules than they are by child poverty?”.It followed the issue being raised at PMQs, where Mr Flynn claimed that voters were “used to child poverty under the Tories”, but not from Labour.

He said: “The two-child benefit cap as introduced by the Conservative Party has left 250,000 children living in poverty.

“Can I ask the Prime Minister, does he take comfort in knowing that the heinous legacy of that policy will no longer just be protected by Conservative members, but by Labour members too?”

Mr Sunak replied: “I welcome the Labour leader’s newfound support for our policy, even though he previously committed to a different approach.

“What I would say to him – and indeed the Labour frontbench – is that they don’t have to worry too much, because given the Labour leader’s track record he has never actually kept a promise that he has made.”

The SNP Westminster leader responded: “Voters in Scotland are used to child poverty under the Tories, they almost expect it. But what they don’t expect is child poverty support from the Labour Party. If we look very closely right now, there is a shiver running along the Labour frontbench.”

He added: “For children living in poverty in Scotland, Westminster offers them no real change, it offers them no real hope.”

Mr Flynn’s question was interrupted by shouting from Conservative MPs, but the Prime Minister responded: “The best route out of poverty is through work and the best way to ensure that children do not grow up in poverty is to ensure that they do not grow up in a workless household.

“That is why we are focused on creating more jobs, with 200,000 more in Scotland since 2010, and hundreds of thousands fewer children across the United Kingdom, fewer growing up in workless households.

“We will always continue to reduce child poverty. I don’t want to see a single child grow up in poverty and we will deliver that in every part of the UK, including in Scotland.”

The leader’s spokesman on Wednesday defended the position and said that no shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign over the issue.

He said: “What we have set out is our position, which is that we are not going to be making unfunded spending commitments. Obviously on all questions of tax and spending, we will set out fully costed plans closer to the election.

“We are not going to be in a position where we are advocating changes in policy that we cannot say how we can pay for it. That applies to any number of issues.”

The spokesman declined to say whether it was an “aspiration” to reverse the policy or whether, if fiscal circumstances changed, removing the cap might be possible.