Humza Yousaf: I’m not selling voters ‘rivers of milk and honey’ after independence

The First Minister said separating from the UK would be a ‘transitional process’

Humza Yousaf has said he is not selling voters “rivers of milk and honey” after independence as he set out his views on industrial policy in an independent Scotland.

In a speech at Glasgow University on Monday, the First Minister said dramatic changes would not happen “overnight” and there would be “difficulties” during the transition process.

However, he insisted an independent Scotland could “chart a different, better course” to the UK, which he called the “poor man of north-west Europe”.

First Minister Humza Yousaf speaking at the University of Glasgow. Picture: Lisa Ferguson

Mr Yousaf also said the views of those who do not support independence should not be dismissed.

The First Minister gave his speech a few hours after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar spoke in Rutherglen about the coming general election. Mr Yousaf said his speech was the first in a series he would deliver on the economic case for Scottish independence.

Referring to a report from the Resolution Foundation, he said the average household would be £8,300 better off if the UK had the average income inequality of similar countries.

Mr Yousaf added: “If we use the same analysis for countries that are similar to Scotland, the prize for the typical Scottish household would be even greater. They would be £10,200 better off. That then is the huge prize of independence.

“Not to match the performance of those independent countries overnight, no-one is suggesting that’s going to happen, but to start catching-up – so that Scotland becomes more normal for nations that are like us.”

Professor Graeme Roy, who was chairing the event, later asked Mr Yousaf how long it might take for Scotland to transition to the successful independent country the First Minister envisages.

Mr Yousaf said: “I’m not selling people independence as being an overnight change, that somehow the day after we become independent that there will be rivers of milk and honey and manna will fall from the sky. There will be challenges, of course there will be difficulties. It will be a transitional process. But let’s also be upfront that the failure of the UK economy is hardwired, it’s systemic and there is a better course.”

In his speech, the First Minister said an independent Scotland would see “large-scale public investment in key areas of competitive advantage”, as well as a Government department focused on industrial policy.

He said the UK’s living standards were “abnormally low” and described the country as the “poor man of north-west Europe”. He added: “Far too many people in Scotland [and] right across the UK are losing hope."

Mr Yousaf focused on Scotland’s potential in areas such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS). He said the Scottish Government would set up a special fund to kick-start capital investment in a newly independent Scotland.

"Our initial estimate is that we could use the fund to undertake capital spending of up to £20 billion over the first decade of independence,” he said. “It would be financed through oil revenues and, if needed, through borrowing too.”

Mr Yousaf said this fund could be used to build the ports, pipelines and interconnectors needed to “plug Scotland directly into EU markets and maximise the benefits from key sectors such as hydrogen, CCS and floating offshore wind”.

Responding to questions from the audience, he later said UK Labour leader Keir Starmer would be the next prime minister “barring a catastrophe”.

Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy said: “This delusional speech reaffirmed how out of touch Humza Yousaf is with the Scottish people, who are sick and tired of him obsessing over independence.

“The First Minister’s case for ripping Scotland out of the UK rests on myths, fantasy economics and the fanciful hope the public forget that last month’s disastrous tax-and-axe budget was the product of years of waste and dismal growth under the SNP.

“He has the powers to improve the lives of Scottish workers now, but instead has chosen to make Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK, damaging our competitiveness.

“Humza Yousaf is a weak leader in charge of a feuding, scandal-ridden party, which is why he is banging on about the one issue they agree on – breaking up the UK – and ignoring the country at large.”

Mr Sarwar had earlier used his keynote speech to warn the SNP and the Tories would resort to “dirty tricks” to cling to power at Holyrood and Westminster. It came as he urged independence supporters north of the border to back his party in the upcoming general election and help with “booting out the Tories” from Downing Street.

Making his first major speech on 2024, Mr Sarwar said: “We have to expect a lot of dirty tricks and attacks from our opponents.”

His comments came at the start of what he said could be a “momentous year in the history of British and Scottish politics”.

Mr Sarwar hailed 2024 as “the year of change” with the general election, which is almost certain to take place before 2025, providing Labour with the “chance to change our country for the better”.

Speaking directly to independence supporters, the Scottish Labour leader said: “We may ultimately disagree on the final destination for Scotland. But on this part of the journey, let us unite to change our country and get rid of this Tory Government.”

And, while he refused to set a target for how many seats his party could win in the general election, he said the vote would “have an impact closer to home – in Holyrood and on the Scottish Government”.

Mr Sarwar promised a Labour government would “reset devolution and take it back to its founding principles”, telling supporters that the “endless, childish squabbles between both two bad governments must come to an end”.

He also stressed the upcoming general election was “just the first step”, saying that there was also a “chance for change in 2026 with a Scottish Parliament election”.