SNP should choose Kate Forbes as leader but Scottish Greens' veto means that they can't – Murdo Fraser

The Scottish Greens have brought down one SNP leader – and now they effectively get to choose Humza Yousaf’s successor

In the end, Humza Yousaf put himself in a place where he had no choice but to go. Like a defeated Roman general whose tactical stupidity had led to his legions being wiped out, the only available course was for him to fall on his sword. The humiliation of having to beg Alex Salmond for support to keep him in office was simply too much to bear.

We could all see this coming. Decent man though he may be, Yousaf’s leadership was characterised by a series of misjudgments. He was the continuity candidate who couldn’t escape his predecessor’s shadow. He stood by the disgraced former Health Secretary Michael Mathieson long past the point where everyone knew he was finished. He announced a council tax freeze without consulting his colleagues. And then, catastrophically, he tore up the Bute House Agreement without anticipating the furious reaction of the Greens.

We should not underestimate the role of Douglas Ross in his downfall. Displaying considerable tactical nous, he lodged a motion of no confidence in the vulnerable First Minister within hours of the announcement that the deal with the Greens was over. Like a Highland wildcat stalking his prey, Ross chose the perfect moment to pounce. At that point, it was clear that it was all over.

Kate Forbes came close to winning last year's SNP leadership contest (Picture: Jane Barlow/pool/Getty Images)

SNP’s bright young things

Now the SNP need a new leader and Scotland needs a new First Minister. The race seems to be shaping up as a contest between the veteran John Swinney and Kate Forbes, who came so close to winning last time. Forbes could be the fresh start the SNP need after 17 dismal years – which the rest of us don’t want them to have.

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She wants to concentrate on the economy, getting taxation and public services right in a way that might just appeal to most of Scotland’s voters. In contrast, Swinney looks like the ultimate continuity candidate, harking back to the Sturgeon era, the architect of the ill-fated Bute House Agreement with the Greens, and doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. He is the opposition’s choice as leader.

It is striking that the bright young things in the SNP – Neil Gray, Mairi McAllan, Jenny Gilruth – are all ruling themselves out and backing Swinney. This is a solid indication that they all expect the party to take a drubbing in the forthcoming general election, and want someone else to carry the can.

SNP animus towards Forbes

But there is another reason why so many establishment figures seem to be pushing Swinney, and that is their belief that he is the only candidate who can defeat Forbes in a contest. Having come so close last time in a vote of the membership, they are terrified that she would win, with a platform of shifting the party away from the extremist Greens and towards the centre ground.

The degree of animus towards Forbes from many in the SNP parliamentary party cannot be underestimated. It is fair to say that she and her allies have not shown unconditional loyalty to the leadership under Yousaf, rebelling on key votes as recently as last week, when six SNP MSPs abstained on a Bill on justice reforms. But for those committed to ‘progressive’ policies, high taxes, unreformed public services, a disdain for rural communities, and an obsession with trans rights, her political agenda and personal beliefs put her beyond the pale.

Yousaf is wrong. Independence is not 'frustratingly close' – Stewart McDonald

Forbes has one other crippling disadvantage – she is not the choice of the Greens. Ultimately whoever emerges as SNP leader will need their votes – or at least their abstentions – to become First Minister. They have a black ball which means that the 63 SNP MSPs’ votes count for nothing in the election of their own leader. The Greens got rid of the last SNP leader in hapless Humza and now they get to choose his successor.

It must be a bitter irony for SNP MSPs and MPs who advocate independence from a larger nation that, at Holyrood, they are in such stifling thrall to such a smaller party. There may be no return to the Bute House Agreement but it is clear that Patrick Harvie has a veto on its occupant and who sits where around the Cabinet table.

SNP heading for split?

This week, one unnamed SNP minister told a journalist that Forbes, even if successfully elected as leader, would need Tory MSPs to back her to become First Minister as even some SNP MSPs would oppose her. Spoiler alert: that won’t be happening. It is not our job to put any SNP politician in power, and our voters would never stand for it.

But the very fact that this story was briefed tells us all we need to know about the fear and loathing that exist in some quarters of the SNP for Forbes. Nothing was more calculated to damage her candidacy with SNP members than the suggestion that she would attract Tory support.

The animosity runs in the other direction too. Forbes’ supporters still harbour seething resentment at Swinney’s comments on her during the last contest, when he claimed that her socially conservative views made her unfit for high office – despite having sat alongside here in Cabinet for years. These wounds still fester.

Maybe, in the end, the SNP isn’t a big enough party to contain these two very different camps. Perhaps at some point in the future, it will split into two nationalist parties – one, led perhaps by Kate Forbes, with a centrist, pro-growth agenda, the other, led by the likes of Mairi McAllan, leaning left, radical on social issues, and embracing the Greens.

That is for another day. For now, the rest of us can just enjoy watching the spiral of self-destruction.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife