Poll: SNP lead in Scotland falls as Labour narrows the gap

Support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party is growing but the SNP is still ahead, a new poll shows

The SNP’s lead over Labour in Scotland is reducing ahead of the next general election, a new poll indicates.

Ipsos’ Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, found the SNP leads Scottish Labour by seven points on Westminster voting intention.

However, this is down from a 12-point lead in May 2023 and a ten-point lead in November.

SNP leader Humza Yousaf launching the party's general election campaign in Glasgow in January. Picture: John Devlin

Using the Electoral Calculus seat predictor model, the SNP would be projected to win 40 seats at the general election, while Scottish Labour would take 13. The Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats would each win two seats.

Voter preferences show the SNP on 39 per cent (-1 since November), Labour on 32 per cent (+2), the Conservatives on 14 per cent (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 6 per cent (unchanged) and the Green Party on 4 per cent (+1).

The poll shows the SNP remains the most trusted party across a range of issues. However, Labour has narrowed the gap on all four of the issues surveyed – managing the NHS, growing Scotland’s economy, managing education and schools, and tackling the cost-of-living crisis.

Elsewhere, the polls shows a small lead for Yes. Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate independence referendum, 53 per cent said they would vote Yes and 47 per cent No.

First Minister Humza Yousaf. Picture: PA

The SNP has a nine-point lead over Labour on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention, down from a 14-point lead in May last year. But on regional list voting intention, the SNP leads Labour by just two points, down from a seven-point lead in November.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These results underline that while the Labour Party is making considerable headway in Scotland, the party’s leadership should not be complacent about the SNP as an electoral force.

“Humza Yousaf’s party still has a lead on voting intention for both Westminster and Holyrood elections and is the party that the Scottish public trust most to manage the NHS, the economy, education and the cost-of-living crisis.

"The direction of travel will worry the SNP, as Labour has been gaining ground across a range of policy issues, while trust in the SNP has been on the wane. Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share can make a big difference to the final result, which means there is still much uncertainty for the parties at this point in an election year.”

SNP deputy leader Keith Brown said: “It's encouraging that people across Scotland continue to support the SNP and our strong record in government. The SNP will never taken a single vote for granted, and will keep delivering for people across Scotland every day by focussing on their priorities.

"The SNP remains the most trusted party in Scotland across all the issues polled, including the economy, health, education and cost of living. With independence at 53 per cent in this poll, people also back our positive vision for Scotland’s future, as an independent country in the EU with full access to the single European market.”