Nicola Sturgeon arrest: What the Crown Office and police do next will define the future of Scottish politics

Politics in Scotland stands on the most definitive crossroads for a decade following the arrest, and subsequent release without charge pending further investigation, of Nicola Sturgeon.

The former first minister, the most successful electoral asset the nationalist cause has ever had, spent seven hours in police custody on Sunday being questioned.

It followed the arrest of her husband, former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, and of Colin Beattie, the former SNP treasurer, both sensational moments of high drama that pale into relative insignificance following Sunday’s events.

Former First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon, during campaigning for the Scottish Parliamentary election in Alford in 2021. Picture: PA

All three have been subject to hours of questioning, with three high-profile police interventions – particularly the simultaneous raid on SNP headquarters and the Uddingston home of the party’s power couple after Mr Murrell’s arrest – with no immediate charges.

All three were released without charge, pending further investigation, as part of a probe that has now lasted a month shy of two years.

What happens next and the decisions made by independent prosecutors at the Crown Office will not only define the legacy of Ms Sturgeon, but will radically change the face of Scottish politics.

If SNP figures are charged…

A police van outside former first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon's home, in Uddingtson, Glasgow, after she was arrested in the police investigation into the SNP's finances.

Any charge will fundamentally alter the way the Scottish public views the SNP brand, which, for so many years, has been built on the fallacy of Scottish and nationalist exceptionalism.

We do not know – and there is no evidence to suggest – exactly what the police are investigating, beyond it having begun with complaints about the SNP’s party finances and how they spent £600,000 of crowdfunded money.

The police have been, as usual, silent on the alleged crime(s) and rumours abound on social media about the extent of the investigation; whether it is specifically on the topic of the ‘missing cash’ or if it has broadened.

If there are charges, for any of the three main protagonists, but in particular Ms Sturgeon, the perception of years of building the brand of the SNP to be the direct opposite to the sleaze-ridden, corrupt, and untrustworthy caricature of the UK Conservatives will be for naught.

The days of clamouring to present the party, and by extension the cause of independence, as superior, as better than the status quo options, will be over. It will likely damage the SNP beyond repair for at least a decade.

For Ms Sturgeon, a charge by itself would destroy a political legacy built on electoral success and the perception of progressive policy delivery, replaced instead by the tarnish of a resignation linked inexorably with the impending scandal.

It will also likely fatally weaken Humza Yousaf, who will, regardless of the outcome, be forever linked with his former boss and the scandal that engulfed her as he came to power, firmly backed as continuity Sturgeon.

Any hope of a revival after the expected general election in 2024 will likely be extinguished by a resurgent Labour party, newly installed in Westminster, and the very public, hugely damaging optics of any trial.

It is Anas Sarwar and Alex Cole-Hamilton’s most expeditious way into Bute House as part of a probable Labour/Lib Dem coalition. It would likely be the end of the SNP as we know it.

If there are no charges…

Even without a decision made on the SNP investigation, the departing Chief Constable Iain Livingstone has left his successor an uphill task after his admission Police Scotland is institutionally racist and discriminatory.

But the political ramifications of choosing, or being advised by the Crown Office, not to charge senior SNP figures would be significant.

The views of Murray Foote, the former top spinner for the SNP who resigned after a row over membership numbers saw him provide incorrect information to journalists, provide a window into the mainstream nationalist opinion.

In May, he described the police investigation as a “grotesque circus” and compared it to the malicious prosecution of Rangers, which has cost the taxpayer millions. The possibility of a significant political backlash against the police should the investigation be dropped is very real.

It has been the most high-profile probe into a political party’s finances since the dawn of devolution, with arrests spread out over a period of three months, each resulting in days of front page coverage and rolling TV coverage.

Polling for the SNP has also plummeted since Ms Sturgeon’s resignation, likely due to a combination of the loss of a charismatic leader, a damaging fierce internal leadership contest, and the reputational damage from the police investigation.

Officers will have to explain why they felt it necessary to impart such damage on the party of government, not just to those running the country, but also supporters of that party.

The question ‘what on earth were you looking at’ will also ring loudly from both opposition and internal supporters should the probe be dropped by police.

Opportunities for all of the SNP’s opponents

The ongoing probe is, however, Scottish Labour’s biggest opportunity to seize the initiative and regain first place in Scottish politics for a generation.

In Mr Sarwar, the party has a likeable leader riding the wave of UK-wide polling for Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership and the collapse of the Conservatives under first Boris Johnson, then Liz Truss, and now Rishi Sunak.

Labour also have 16 years of average to poor performance by the SNP in domestic policy, an economy wreaking havoc on the cost of living, and no strong, once-in-a-generation nationalist leader or any real possibility of a second independence referendum.

It is the perfect storm, one stumbled upon more through luck than judgement, but one Scottish Labour must grasp. Failure to be consistently ahead in both Holyrood and Westminster polling by the end of the year should rightly be viewed a a failure.

There are opportunities for others too, with Alba seeking to present itself as the natural home for the erring SNP member unsettled by their party’s travails.

However, there is no sign there is any mass switch to the party, which is polling so poorly its leader, Alex Salmond, has effectively begged Mr Yousaf for an electoral pact, intended to protect the two remaining elected representatives they have.

The irony of the scandal engulfing the SNP is that it has been sparked by a wider ‘Make Alex Great Again’ movement, dedicated to the reputational rehabilitation of Mr Salmond, whose backers believe was stitched up by Ms Sturgeon and her supporters during his own brush with the law.

Polling suggests, however, that public support for independence is slowly becoming uncoupled from the SNP as a political force.

While this police probe may result in the death of independence this side of 2030, it does not yet seem to have killed the nationalist cause stone dead.