General election 2024: Scottish Highland love story - what's behind popularity of Lib Dems in the north?

The Lib Dems enjoy huge support in the far-north Highlands and the northern isles – will this work in their favour at the general election?

The big story in Scotland on the night of the general election will be just how many seats Labour can take off the SNP.

But that probably won’t be the story that plays out in the most northerly regions of these isles.

The Lib Dems enjoy very comfortable, but small pockets of support in the far-north Highlands and the northern isles – something that looks set to continue at the 2024 general election.

The Isle of Skye lies in the Ross, Skye and Lochaber constituency, which was originally held by Charles Kennedy and is being targeted by the Lib Dems at the coming general election. Picture: Getty Images

So why are people in these regions voting for the Lib Dems?

Jamie Stone, Lib Dem MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, told The Scotsman: “In communities across the north of Scotland, Liberal Democrats are rediscovering our proud and strong traditions.

“When I’m out knocking doors and speaking to constituents, I see how tired people are of being ignored by the SNP and the Conservatives. On issues like road safety or access to transport and healthcare, people feel like they’ve been left high and dry and just left to make do with their lot.

“They feel that both governments have lost sight of what matters.

Jamie Stone, Lib Dem MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.

“But with our emphasis on communities, people and public service, more and more people are switching to the Liberal Democrats because we represent a politics of hope and change.”

Stone won his seat in 2019 by just 204 votes – but polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Lib Dems MP could feel confident about his chances in 2024.

Prof Curtice said: “The question is can Jamie Stone extend what is a very substantial personal vote? And he may do that.

“The Highlands, even at a Westminster election, are still voting for the person rather than the party. It is the last part of the world where that bit of Victorian politics still survives.”

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.

Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, is also likely to have a comfortable time at the ballot boxes this time around.

He won the seat at the 2019 general election by more than 2,500 votes, finishing well ahead of the second-placed SNP candidate Robert Leslie in polling that day.

Carmichael is the longest-serving Lib Dem MP in the existing UK Parliament, having first won the seat in 2001, in a sign of his – and the party’s – vice-like grip on the northerly constituency. And he is a prominent voice in Scottish political ranks, having been appointed as the Lib Dems home affairs spokesman under leader Sir Ed Davey in 2020 in the midst of the Covid pandemic.

Prof Curtice said he could see the Lib Dems holding the northern isles, adding: “Alistair Carmichael has survived before, so I don’t see them losing that seat. He will have to extend his personal vote, but they should hang on to Orkney and Shetland.”

The Lib Dems are hoping to capitalise on the popularity of the late Charles Kennedy. Image: Julian Herbert/Getty Images.

However, the Lib Dems want to go further in the Highlands than just retaining constituencies. They are hoping Angus MacDonald will join Stone and Carmichael on the green benches in the House of Commons as the MP for Inverness, Skye and Ross-shire.

This is a brand new constituency created following the Electoral Commission boundary changes. But the Lib Dems are hoping the historic support in the region for Charles Kennedy, who served as the Lib Dems leader from 1999 to 2006, will help them.

Kennedy held the seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber from 1983 until 2015.

Stone said: “You can see it in Charles Kennedy’s old seat for example, where our candidate Angus MacDonald works tirelessly to put his community first. Whether it’s campaigning to replace the Belford Hospital or improve the A82 or regenerate high streets, Angus is passionate about delivering for this area and its people.

“By standing up for rural issues and advocating for the voices of communities, Liberal Democrats are persuading more and more people in the Highlands and islands to put their faith in us.”

This optimism, however, is not shared by Prof Curtice, who said he believed MacDonald would have a difficult time at the polls. He is up against incumbent SNP MP Drew Hendry – and the polling expert thinks the Nationalist politician shouldn’t be too worried about clearing out his desk.

Prof Curtice said: “The Lib Dems are starting from a long way behind and the Charles Kennedy vote has disappeared. In this new constituency, they are not even starting off in second place – they are in third place.

“They will have to squeeze the Tory vote for a start, which I imagine they can do. But the SNP vote share is about 48 per cent, so even if we knock 12 per cent off of that, they still have a third of the vote.

“It is not impossible, but the Lib Dems would have to squeeze the Tory vote quite considerably. Can they do that? Who knows, but it is a long shot.”

It remains likely, however, that the coming general election will see a revival of Liberal Democrat fortunes in the Highlands, where they enjoyed strong support before the SNP’s post-2014 referendum surge.

In 2015, the Lib Dems lost both Kennedy’s Ross, Skye and Lochaber seat, to the SNP’s Ian Blackford, and former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander’s Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey seat, to Hendry.

And Lord Thurso lost Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, a seat he had held since 2001, to the SNP’s Paul Monaghan. Stone won this seat back for the Lib Dems in 2017. This time around, his party will be hoping to win him more Westminster colleagues for the long, regular trips between the Highlands and London.