Analysis: What's behind the boost in support for Labour in Scotland?

Experts pointed to a number of factors – but also sounded a note of caution

The SNP has dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade, but there is evidence the tectonic plates are shifting.

Polls show Labour is on course to pick up seats in Scotland at the general election as it narrows the gap with the SNP. But what’s behind this shift? Delegates at the Scottish Labour conference were given an insight by academics linked to the Scottish Election Study (SES).

At a fringe event at the SEC in Glasgow, Dr Fraser McMillan and Professor Christopher Carman laid out some of the changes that have taken place over the past few years.

Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, alongside Angela Rayner, Labour MP and shadow deputy prime minister. Picture: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

For one thing, the link between constitutional preference – in other words, whether people back independence or not – and support for particular political parties has loosened. This is partly because the salience of independence as an issue is waning, explained Dr McMillan – even if people’s views remain solid.

So while Scots might have a firm opinion on independence, this is less likely to determine how they will vote.

Meanwhile, trust in the SNP and the Conservatives, who are in power north and south of the border, has declined, to the benefit of Labour.

"The other issue for the SNP and the big advantage for Labour is that Scots overall prioritise getting rid of the Tory Government in Westminster,” said Dr McMillan.

Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar. Picture: PA

This obviously plays into Labour’s message that a vote for the party can help “boot” the Tories out of power.

Elsewhere, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar is the least unpopular leader in Scotland, Dr McMillan said, even if the difference is fairly marginal. All of this will feed the tangible sense of optimism pervading the Scottish Labour conference this weekend.

The atmosphere within the party is a world away from where it was just a few years ago. Behind the scenes, lobbyists talk of clients falling over themselves to get access. There is a sense that power is within reach.

But the boffins also sounded a note of caution. Many of those voters who have switched to Labour have done so tactically, rather than because they are fired up by the party’s policies.

Prof Carman told the fringe event: “There is this increased support in the polls – the question is how soft is that support? Is that something that can be reliably held between now and whenever a general election is going to be, and how do you work to maintain that support over the next several months as we wait for the next general election?”

There’s also a particular challenge for Mr Sarwar.

If UK leader Sir Keir Starmer does win the keys to Downing Street, he will need to demonstrate fairly quickly that his party can change things for the better. If voters become disillusioned, that could benefit the SNP ahead of the next Holyrood election in 2026.

Or as Dr McMillan jokingly put it: "I suppose the advice is, if you get into Government actually do a good job.”