Fraser Brown: Why Scotland should win in Cardiff, Zander Fagerson underappreciated, big decisions for Townsend

Glasgow Warriors and Scotland hooker Fraser Brown writes exclusively for The Scotsman

Scotland haven’t won in Cardiff since 2002. In all that time, you could probably count on one hand how many of those Scotland teams travelled south with a realistic hope of a close encounter let alone the expectation of a win until, perhaps, this one.

I don’t think there has been a Scotland team that's had a better opportunity to win there than the current side this weekend. And that's not being arrogant, it's based on the merits of the respective teams.

Scots generally don’t like the tag of favourites. Forever the underdogs, performing with backs against the wall, out to prove people wrong. There will be a few, probably more than a few, who will hate me talking up our chances, but you can’t escape the facts. Look at the two squads and the way each side has played over the last 18 months. Look at the performances of each nation's respective pro sides. Even when you factor in that we are playing away at a tough, hostile venue, Scotland are the stronger team and should head to Cardiff full of quiet confidence and expectation.

Scotland beat Wales away during the 2020 Guinness Six Nations but the match was played in an empty stadium in Llanelli because of Covid. Scotland's last win in Cardiff was in 2002. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

That was our mindset the last time I went there with Scotland, in 2020. It was probably one of the first times I had been part of a national squad where every player, coach, member of management felt like that going into an away game. We never felt like we weren’t going to win that match. Unfortunately, it got postponed due to Covid on the Friday afternoon. Scotland did eventually win the rescheduled fixture, which was played in October, but at an empty ground in Llanelli, not a jam-packed Principality Stadium.

I think when you’ve been playing with people for long enough you know the difference between puffing your own sails a little bit too much and having an underlying confidence that the whole squad are going to go down there and perform. We had that feeling in 2020 and I hope the current squad go to Cardiff with the same mindset.

Last year’s record win over Wales at Murrayfield must also count for something although it's important to note that the performance was only really convincing after half-time. The first half was scrappy and we didn’t execute our game plan as we had hoped. We got drawn into a slugfest and it became very attritional.

If you don’t respect the physicality of Welsh teams then you are going to lose the battle. Rugby has always been about winning collisions on the gainline. To be clear, this doesn’t mean simply running straight and hard. Winning the collision is about guile, deception, and then power. Creating opportunities to run at weak shoulders, isolating defenders and creating one-on-one situations. When you do this, you win collisions, create momentum, and generate quick ball.

In the second half last year we were able to move the ball a little bit more. With Finn Russell sitting behind the centres as a second receiver, the threat of his passing and kicking game as well as the running threats of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones created multi threats which the Welsh defence was unable to cover.

You have to be confrontational to beat Wales. You can still move the ball and create space, but you need to generate momentum first.

There are a number of selection issues for Scotland, some shaped by injury. Losing WP Nel for the opener is a blow. He is such a reliable and consistent performer in the scrum. We have to be honest and say that, outwith Zander Fagerson and Nel, Scotland don’t have much battle-hardened Test match experience at tighthead.

Zander gets his share of unfair criticism. I don’t think people fully appreciate what an unbelievable player he is. There are not many other tightheads in the world who play close to 80 minutes every week for their club and can also do it at Test match level.

He’s a very good, powerful scrummager and his involvements around the pitch are ridiculous. He’ll be in the top three most weeks for balls carried in the pack, tackles made and rucks hit. Scotland need to do everything they can to have him fit and on form for the entire championship.

With Grant Gilchrist suspended, the obvious pairing in the second row is Richie Gray and Scott Cummings. Richie is very experienced at Test match level, very calm. He never gets flustered, doesn’t buckle under pressure, and knows how to run his lineout. Scott’s been playing some of his best rugby of the season in the last few weeks. I thought he was really good for Glasgow against Toulon and did well the week before against Exeter too.

There are other options in the second row. Sam Skinner is in there but hasn’t played much rugby this season because of injury. Glen Young has been playing really well for Edinburgh. He’s big, abrasive, dynamic and has a good skill-set.

In an ideal world, Rory Darge would be fit to start against Wales but he hasn’t played since December 30. If Rory is fit for Cardiff, then great. If not, there is Andy Christie who has been one of the best back-rows in the Premiership this season. He’s a poacher, he’s powerful and a brilliant lineout jumper, despite not being the tallest.

I’d be tempted to go with Andy and give Rory another week to get stronger and then unleash him against France in round two. We know Darcy Graham won’t be fit for the first two rounds of the Six Nations and I think his replacement on the wing will come down to a choice between the two Kyles, Steyn and Rowe.

Kyle Steyn looked really sharp for Glasgow against Toulon but it was his first game since injuring his ankle in October. Kyle Rowe has been playing every week.

They’re different kinds of players. Rowe has been really solid, has brilliant feet and always beats the first defender. Steyn is powerful, quick and direct, and he’ll challenge physically. Both impress under the high ball; their link play is good and their defence is solid.

At centre, I think Gregor will go with his tried and tested combination, Sione at 12 and Huw at 13. They were brilliant in the last Six Nations.

The bench will be interesting. If you have Cameron Redpath there then that’s another ball player with the ability to slot in at 12. I know Gregor’s a big fan of Cameron’s and he’s been playing really well at Bath, linking up with Finn. It’s a tough call and I’m glad I don’t have to make these decisions.

Scrum-half will depend on Ben White’s fitness. If he’s fit, I think he’ll start. Ali Price is playing well at Edinburgh but is he playing well enough to get the starting jersey?

George Horne has been brilliant, as usual, and I feel so bad saying this as I would hate someone to say it about me, but George is the perfect player to bring off the bench at Test match level. He is so threatening when he increases the tempo.

Like all Six Nations games, it’s do or die, even in round one. With France coming to Murrayfield the following week, an away win is vital for Scotland to launch a title challenge. It will be an absolute battle and I think Scotland will win by six.