Can Scotland win the 2024 Six Nations? What Ireland defeat to England means as title race goes to final weekend

Scotland’s defeat in Rome has all but extinguished title hopes despite England favour

The destination of the 2024 Six Nations title will be decided on the final weekend after surprise defeats for Scotland and Ireland on Saturday.

Scotland went into the weekend hoping for a favour from England against Ireland providing they could do the business against Italy. But a 31-29 loss in Rome – the first time the Scots have lost in the Italian capital in 12 years – has left their title hopes in tatters.

Ireland had the chance to clinch the championship with a match to spare at Twickenham but a last gasp drop goal from Marcus Smith secured a dramatic 23-22 win for the hosts to prevent an Irish title party and keep England’s own tournament chances alive.

Scotland's players react as Italy's players celebrate after winning the Six Nations match. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP) (Photo by ALBERTO PIZZOLI/AFP via Getty Images)

It was the result Scotland would have wanted and deepens the dejection of the result at the Stadio Olimpico.

While England’s win moves them into second place, Ireland’s losing bonus point ensures they have moved five points clear of third-placed Scotland ahead of hosting Gregor Townsend’s side in Dublin next weekend. Any win for Ireland in that match will clinch the title.

Can Scotland still win the Six Nations? Technically, yes. Realistically, no.

The best Scotland can hope for is matching Ireland's 16-point total by claiming a bonus-point victory while denying Ireland any bonus points of their own. But any hope of lifting the title is slim to say the least due to Ireland’s substantial points differential advantage of +80 compared to Scotland’s +4.

There is little chance of Scotland overturning that in a single match – they would need to win by 39 points – so, realistically, Scotland’s best hope for is a runners-up finish, providing England lose to France, and providing France don’t overtake Scotland in the table. They are currently on the same number of points as the Scots, and also have a points differential of +4, but Scotland are ahead of them due to scoring one more try than them during the tournament.

If Steve Borthwick’s side secure a bonus-point win in Paris then they will clinch second place at worst – and could even win the Six Nations if Scotland do them a massive favour by defeating Ireland at the Aviva Stadium while denying the hosts a losing bonus point.

A Scotland win over Ireland would also clinch the Triple Crown for the first time since 1990 which would allow Townsend’s men to claim some credit from the 2024 tournament. However, Scotland have lost their last nine matches in a row against Ireland and have not won in Dublin since a 23-20 victory at Croke Park in 2010 so there is the real prospect of finishing the tournament with just two wins and as low as fourth or fifth in the standings depending on other results.

It seems Scotland are destined for another campaign of what ifs.