Analysis: Upcoming by-election will be a crucial test for Labour and the SNP

Both parties have something to prove in Rutherglen and Hamilton West

First Minister Humza Yousaf

The by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be a crucial test for both Labour and the SNP.

A total of 11,896 constituents backed a recall petition to oust Margaret Ferrier, the former SNP MP, after she was suspended from Westminster for breaking Covid rules.

Voters will now get to choose her replacement in a matter of months – likely October.

Labour is confident of victory. It said its candidate, Michael Shanks, is “ready to hit the ground running”.

There is a sense of optimism within the Labour Party in Scotland. It is targeting up to 20 seats at the next general election, which would have been unheard of a few years ago. No one expects Labour to win all of these, but even to talk of such things is a huge shift.

Sir Keir Starmer believes he can be the next prime minister, and that drive and determination is having an impact in Scotland. Shafts of sunlight are piercing through the doom and gloom of recent years.

The upcoming by-election offers Labour a chance to demonstrate that momentum. It will want a decisive win. On the other hand, if the party loses, there will be big question marks over its hoped-for revival in Scotland.

The SNP also has something to prove. Humza Yousaf, the new party leader and First Minister, has had a nightmarish start to his time in office. The police investigation into his party’s finances exploded into the spotlight within days of his election.

Instead of advancing his own agenda, Mr Yousaf has been left dealing with the sort of newspaper headlines that cause political advisers to wake up drenched in cold sweat. The recent arrest of Nicola Sturgeon – who was released without charge – was just the latest in a long line of astonishing developments.

Elsewhere, Mr Yousaf’s independence strategy seems half-baked and several high-profile Scottish Government policies are mired in difficulties. Polls show a drop in support for the SNP. Critics hope the party’s dominance of Scottish politics is drawing to a close.

A victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West would help demonstrate the SNP still has plenty of gas left in the tank. It would provide Mr Yousaf with a much-needed boost.

Whatever happens, this will be a significant moment.