Subdued 2012 data an improvement on initial estimates

THE end of the UK’s double-dip recession is expected to be signposted this week by official data, setting the scene for subdued economic growth in the final six months of 2012.

The final estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of economic output between April and June is likely to show a 0.4 per cent decline, down from a much-worse initial estimate of 0.7 per cent.

It is thought that the third quarter to September will show a rebound to growth, thanks to improved industrial production and a potential boost from the Olympics.

However, many economists believe the economy will eventually still fall overall in 2012, by about 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent, as the growth in the second half will not offset the contraction in the first six months of the year.

The ONS’s first estimate of third-quarter growth is due to be published on 25 October.