Waleed Ibrahim: Threat to revive militia shows Iraq regime's fragility

Published on Friday 22 April 2011 20:50

Moqtada al-Sadr's threat to unleash his Mehdi Army could revive radical elements in Iraq and pit the once-feared militia against Iraqi and US troops.

Sadr's warning, issued on 9 April, the eighth anniversary of the day US forces toppled Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad, reveals a delicate balancing act by Sadr and the new, Shiite-led government he played a big part in forming.

The Shiite cleric said he would escalate military resistance and "unfreeze" the Mehdi Army if US troops remained in Iraq after 31 December, when they are scheduled to depart.

"He (Sadr] is aware of what he is saying and has the ability to live up to his promises. But I think he put himself in front of difficult choices," Shiite lawmaker Adnan al-Shahmani said. "If he does what he promised, he will be face-to-face not only with US forces but with government forces as well. If not, it means he promised and did not live up to his promise."

Prime minister Nuri al-Maliki has said his forces can defend Iraq and he will not need foreign troops beyond 31 December. But some of his commanders have said American forces will be needed long after the deadline. Iraq has almost no air force or navy and is vulnerable to external threats.

Any decision to extend the security pact is expected to meet stiff resistance, particularly from Sadr, whose support assured Maliki a second term after an inconclusive 2010 election.

"We have many indications that the government will extend the pact… we will use all possible means… to prevent the extension of this pact," said lawmaker Bahaa al-Araji, a senior member of Sadr's bloc.

Sadr's Mehdi Army fought US troops after the US-led invasion in 2003 and during the height of sectarian slaughter in 2006-7, when tens of thousands of Iraqis were killed. US commanders blamed the militia for much of the bloodshed, which declined when Maliki sent troops to crush Sadr's forces in 2008.

Sadr put a "freeze" on his army and said it would become a humanitarian group. The black-clad fighters have stayed low profile since but Washington still regards them with suspicion.

Some Shiite lawmakers said it would be simple enough for Sadr to rearm the militia.

"It is true the Mehdi Army wouldn't be as strong as it was. But the re-arming would not be an issue for Moqtada at all," one Shiite legislator said."The important issue regarding his source of strength is that there are many of his followers who are ready to sacrifice their souls for his sake," the lawmaker said.

As a sign of his ability to flex his muscles, 5,000 supporters marched peacefully in the city of Basra on Thursday.

Haider al-Mulla, a lawmaker with the cross-sectarian Iraqiya bloc, warned that any change to Washington's current thinking on Iraq should take into consideration the growing influence of neighbouring Iran, where Sadr has lived and studied for years.

"It (the US] should build its strategy, not only in Iraq but in the whole region, according to the dangerous growth of this influence," he said.

Sadr's warning came not long after a visit by the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, who pressed Baghdad to decide whether it wants US troops to stay and help fend off a festering insurgency. About 47,000 remain in Iraq.

Most Iraqi officials only hint at a possible resolution. Foreign minister Hoshiyar Zebari said that if Iraq needs help, particularly for training, "it will be subject to mutual understanding" with Washington. Maliki's office said recently that Iraq was "looking forward to future co-operation with the United States in the field of arming and training".The government had no reaction to Sadr's threat. But critics say it could open the door to renewed sectarian conflict.

Violence has receded since its peak in 2006-7, but there are still lethal bombings and other attacks every day. "Sadr's threat will provide an environment to revive radicals in Iraq again. The Iraqi situation cannot tolerate this at all," Mulla said. More than eight years after the invasion that toppled Saddam, Iraq struggles to improve intelligence and logistics capabilities that could help vanquish the militants.