Nicola Sturgeon's officials knew wind statistic was wrong a month prior to admission by ministers

Civil servants working for Nicola Sturgeon’s own policy unit on the Scottish Government’s independence prospectus knew an incorrect wind statistic was being used “without much evidence” more than a month before ministers admitted it was wrong.

The SNP and Government ministers have been at the centre of a row over the often used claim that Scotland has 25 per cent of Europe’s offshore wind potential. This statistic was debunked in a report by pro-union think-tank These Islands, with the UK Statistics Authority also stating it was “poorly constructed” as well as “outdated”, as claimed by ministers.

Lorna Slater, the Green minister, told MSPs on November 15 that ministers became aware of the issue with the statistic on November 8 when media organisations shared the report by These Islands with the Government.

However, The Scotsman can reveal this claim has been undermined by Freedom of Information (FOI) disclosures, which show civil servants were aware the figure was poorly sourced as early as October 2020.

In a fresh blow to the Government, new disclosures show civil servants discussing how the statistic was unreliable and whether to include it in the ‘Building a New Scotland’ independence prospectus paper.

The 25 per cent statistic was set to be used in the paper before officials within the First Minister’s policy unit in late September began to double check its veracity. Civil servants at Marine Scotland push back on its use, stating the claim is “obviously quite old” and “we understand there’s a question mark over whether those stats still hold”.

One states in an email: “The 25 per cent figure has been and was used freely without much evidence or reference for a long time. SG has received multiple FOIs on the subject and challenging the claim.

"In completing the FOI requests, we found that the references were very circular and none pointing to an actual source.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been dragged into a row over the use of a misleading wind energy statistic by ministers.

More than a month prior to the admission the statistic was incorrect on October 3, an unnamed official recommends to others the figure should no longer be used. They state in an email: “That line keeps popping up in comms lines, so would be good if you all try and put this one out to grass...”

A Marine Scotland official, responding to a request for a “comparable Scotland-level figure for offshore wind technical potential” to the EU for use in the economy paper, said there was no easy answer to the question. However, he adds they and another civil servant “have been asked to look at options for a figure to use in future, but I’m afraid we have not have a chance to progress this work”. It is not clear whether this is a ministerial request.

However, ministers continue to claim they were not aware of the issues with the figure until more than a month later. Sam Taylor of These Islands said the suggestion ministers were not made aware was not credible and suggests civil servants were “shielding ministers from politically inconvenient facts”.

He said: “These emails reveal multiple senior teams of civil servants speaking candidly about the 25 per cent figure being impossible to justify. To believe that no Scottish Government ministers became aware of this issue is to believe the civil service was shielding ministers from politically inconvenient facts. That would be a scandal in its own right.

"What’s much more likely is that ministers were made aware, and that the Scottish Parliament has been misled, about who knew what and when.”

The Government said the First Minister’s policy unit works with teams across Government to aid with strategic approach, with their work only seen by ministers when there is a final policy recommendation submitted.

However, they failed to confirm whether Ms Sturgeon or another minister received a briefing note that stated the disputed statistic was “poorly evidenced”, subject to challenge, with officials advising “against using this statement”.

It is also claimed ministers were also not briefed on the decision by officials to avoid the use of the 25 per cent figure in the independence prospectus paper, Building a New Scotland. This is despite the figure being used repeatedly by senior ministers and SNP figures ahead of and following the document’s publication.

SNP activists were also found to be hand-delivering leaflets to voters which included the statistic, weeks after it was accepted as misleading in Holyrood.

A Scottish Government spokesperson defended the Government’s approach and instead pointed, as suggested in the disclosed emails from officials, to the success of the ScotWind leasing round.

The spokesperson said: “As we have previously made clear, we recognise that the statistic relating to Scotland’s offshore wind potential requires updating and will be undertaking work to do this. Discussions between officials ahead of the publication Building a New Scotland – A stronger economy with independence were entirely consistent with this approach.

“We will update Parliament once this work is concluded and will also, at that point, consider which legacy documents may need to be updated.

“It is fundamentally important to recognise Scotland’s huge renewable generation capabilities. ScotWind, the world’s largest floating offshore leasing round, represents a massive step forward in delivering an energy revolution with ambitions to deliver up to 27.6 Gigawatts – nearly double our renewable energy generation capacity currently in operation. In total this means that the current reported potential pipeline of offshore wind in Scotland is over 40 Gigawatts of power, subject to planning and consenting decisions and finding a route to market.”

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