John Swinney and Kate Forbes: The pros and cons SNP members may weigh up

Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes are both considering leadership bids

Humza Yousaf’s resignation has triggered a search for the next SNP leader and First Minister, with John Swinney emerging as the clear frontrunner.

A host of senior figures have thrown their weight behind the party veteran, who was Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy until last year.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said he was the “cool, calm head” the public deserves, with a record in politics “unsurpassed in many respects”.

Kate Forbes and John Swinney

Meanwhile, long-serving MP Pete Wishart said Mr Swinney “would be an excellent unifier for our country and our party”.

However, Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary, is also considering a leadership bid. “I am not ruling myself out,” she told Sky News. “I’m still considering all of the options.”

Ms Forbes said there is “a lot of support” for her within the party, but also stressed the need for a leader who can unite the SNP.

Some are eager to avoid a Swinney coronation. “John Swinney is hugely respected across our party but the lesson of the last year is that the SNP needs a complete reset,” tweeted high-profile MP Joanna Cherry. She said there was “no need for an unseemly rush by the (old) boys club to stitch up the succession”.

Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes have yet to formally announce their bids, but both are considering it. So what are their potential pros and cons as leaders?

John Swinney: The Pros

Talk to those within the SNP about Mr Swinney and it won’t be long before someone utters the phrase “a safe pair of hands”. The 60-year-old has been an MSP since the dawn of devolution and is well-liked and respected across the Holyrood chamber.

He has held a number of senior positions over the years, serving as finance secretary under both Alex Salmond and Ms Sturgeon. More recently, he was Ms Sturgeon’s trusted deputy and close ally. Mr Swinney also previously led the SNP between 2000 and 2004.

Basically, he knows the ropes. Supporters say he would provide calm leadership during a time of political turmoil.

He is also likely to be able to win back the support of the Greens on a more informal basis in Holyrood. The party was furious with Mr Yousaf after his decision to rip up the power-sharing deal between the SNP and the Greens. Mr Swinney could heal those wounds.

It is also clear that many within the SNP hierarchy are desperate to avoid a leadership contest. The battle to replace Ms Sturgeon last year was a bruising experience. A Swinney coronation could be just what the doctor ordered.

John Swinney: The Cons

Mr Swinney’s weaknesses are very much linked to his strengths. He is, in the eyes of some, yesterday’s man. He represents the party’s “old guard”.

Polls show the SNP struggling to regain the momentum it once took for granted. Is Mr Swinney really the man to turn things around?

He is billed as a unity candidate, but those in the SNP who desire change wouldn’t necessarily see it that way.

Mr Swinney declined to stand in the leadership race last year, saying it was time for a new generation of SNP members to come to the fore. “What’s changed is that my party finds itself in a very different and more difficult situation than it found itself in 12 months ago,” he told journalists on Tuesday.

The last time Mr Swinney was in charge of the party he wasn’t exactly a roaring success, either. It returned just five MPs at the 2001 Westminster election and 22 MSPs in the 2003 Holyrood vote. After seeing off an attempt to oust him by a party activist, Mr Swinney stepped down voluntarily after a poor showing at the 2004 European elections.

“Some of us remember John Swinney when he was SNP leader, and he wasn't really that good at it," Professor Sir John Curtice told The Herald.

Mr Swinney's time on the political frontline also comes with baggage. He faced a vote of no confidence in 2020 over the Covid school results fiasco, and another in 2022 amid a row over the Scottish Government providing legal advice to the Holyrood inquiry into the Alex Salmond saga.

Kate Forbes: The Pros

Ms Forbes is also well regarded across the Holyrood chamber. No one doubts her intellect, nor her political ability.

The 34-year-old stepped into the spotlight in 2020, after the bombshell resignation of former finance secretary Derek Mackay over messages he sent to a 16-year-old boy.

Amid huge pressure, Ms Forbes had to deliver the Scottish Budget with just hours of preparation. Her performance impressed everyone.

She continued as finance secretary until Ms Sturgeon’s resignation last year, when she announced her intention to run for the party leadership.

It was a bruising contest, and Ms Forbes came under intense scrutiny as a result of her socially conservative religious views. But she showed guts by staying in the race.

And in the end, she was only narrowly defeated by Mr Yousaf, demonstrating her strong support within the party.

Ms Forbes would represent a break with the SNP’s recent past and a fresh start – and she has shown she can be a formidable opponent.

Kate Forbes: The Cons

Ms Forbes’ socially conservative views make her a controversial figure within sections of the party. She is also seen as more to the right on issues such as taxation.

Would her stance on gay marriage, for example, become a problem?

Divisions within the SNP have come to the surface in recent years, and some worry Ms Forbes is not the person to heal them. Would she cause further splits in the party?

Ms Forbes is also very unlikely to win the backing of the Greens. Of course, some of her supporters would have no problem with this.

But the tight parliamentary arithmetic in Holyrood means she could have to rely on votes from elsewhere to get stuff done. That might be tricky.

For example, the support of Ash Regan, the sole Alba Party MSP, would not be enough to pass legislation.