Why the Privileges Committee failed, leaving Boris Johnson to fight again - Brian Monteith

Boris Johnson might be leaving parliamentary politics (for now) but it would be foolish to believe he is going away never to come back.

Former prime minister Boris Johnson leaves his home in London. Picture: Carl Court/Getty Images

I have no reason to doubt there might be some politicians who believe the House of Commons Committee of Privileges has been doing a sterling job of trying to re-assert probity and restore confidence in British parliamentary democracy. There are 650 members of parliament so there might just be a few. If there are, then they are deluding themselves. Its inquiry into whether or not former Prime Minister Boris Johnson misled parliament has only added to the cynicism and distrust towards our political institutions.

It should not have been difficult to establish if Johnson had indeed lied to parliament over the question of parties being held by staff in Whitehall. The meaning of lying means not just to tell an untruth, but to knowingly tell an untruth in order to deceive. Johnson could and did argue he had been briefed by his officials that any social gatherings that had indeed taken place did so within the rules existing at the time. The one time he mistakenly said within “guidance and rules” he corrected the record removing “guidance”.

This included the ambush when he (and Rishi Sunak, who had arrived early for the meeting) were presented with a cake for the PM’s birthday (which the prime minister did not even eat).

Establishing an intent to deceive has not been proven , according to Johnson – but this does not matter, for the Privileges Committee decided it only had to prove Johnson “recklessly misled” parliament – a far lower bar that does not amount to intentionally lying to deceive.

By adopting this position the Committee has brought itself and the Parliament it serves into disrepute. The fact that the Committee chair, Labour grandee Harriet Harmen, had already pronounced on Johnson’s guilt in advance of its hearings has only strengthened the suspicion amongst Johnson loyalists that the inquiry was a set-up from the start.

It has now been accused by Johnson of being a “Kangaroo Court” and it appears from public reactions that many people believe this to be true. If confidence in our democratic institutions was to be restored it would have been far better for the Committee to have taken a balanced approach, even if it might mean Johnson was acquitted, rather than follow a process that allows for accusation of partisan plotting for Johnson to be adjudged guilty.

Of course it is likely media headlines and commentary will focus on Johnson simply being found “guilty” – which will be presented as guilty of lying, yet we do not yet know that is what the committee has managed to demonstrate (the actual report is not expected to be available until at least Tuesday.)

The result is that Johnson, rather than face a vote in parliament to accept the Committee’s report has simply resigned with immediate effect. Thus, the Committee’s behaviour has only strengthened Johnson’s presentation of himself as the victim – for being targeted by the establishment for getting Brexit “over the line”, then “getting Brexit done” in 2020 after humiliating Labour at the polls in 2019.

Johnson’s many enemies in the Conservative Party are now left responsible for their own fate – the election will be won or lost entirely by the decisions Sunak-Hunt-Gove & Co are taking – with Johnson free to criticise from outside the tent without any restraint. As a result there shall always be a significant group of Boris believers that will call for his eventual return and reinstatement to leadership.

It means Prime Minister Sunak has to stop jaunting around the world as if he’s looking for a plum merchant banking job once the Downing Street removal vans have visited – and start to champion policies that deliver on Brexit rather than undermine it.

But most of all it means Chancellor Hunt has to deliver a big enough post-pandemic economic recovery – one that can be seen and experienced by ordinary folk – so real that the electorate will not wish to throw it away.

Already Hunt is back-peddling on his economic pessimism by announcing he is prepared to roll back the additional windfall tax he placed on oil and gas companies, but much investment has already been lost or delayed. The evidence is already no less convincing that the 30 per cent Corporation Tax increase was a mistake, he needs to drop that policy and quickly go for growth, avoiding the recessions that have now befallen the Eurozone overall and Germany and Ireland in particular.

This requires Hunt to admit he was wrong, a highly unlikely occurrence, although he could blame the Office of Budget Responsibility for its repeatedly false economic projections. By giving Johnson a pretext to cut himself free, the Labour strategists, the Sunak loyalists and the EU luvvies have left the door open for Johnson to return, some day.

I can’t say if Johnson will ever return but I do expect the bitterness, rancour and division within the Conservative Party to increase, in the short term at least. I also believe the next general election is Labour’s to lose and the party has no better a leader to achieve such an astonishing feat than Keir Starmer.

And while there is every likelihood that either Sunak and Starmer will seek to cosy up to the EU in the coming years, Johnson is now free to bang the drum about how bad rejoining the EU would be for a now independent Britain (but not yet the whole UK). With the EU publishing a draft budget of 302 billion Euros for 2024 the UK’s potential £30bn membership fee would require an even bigger red bus – and I know a man who is now available to drive it around the country.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European Parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org