SNP has handed immense power to Scottish Greens even though their support could be taken for granted – Euan McColm

The Scottish Greens are unlikely to bring down a pro-independence government and potentially let in the unionists

Humza Yousaf is under mounting pressure from within SNP ranks to end the agreement which brought the Scottish Greens into government at Holyrood. Several nationalist MSPs have – both on and off the record – described the Bute House Agreement as a failure.

A common complaint is that the radical Greens have too much influence on a government that needs to win over cautious, “small c" conservative Scots if the SNP is to build a majority in favour of independence. According to veteran MSP and former minister Fergus Ewing, the Greens are seen by voters as “hard-left extremists who should never be anywhere near government”.

Kate Forbes, who came second to Yousaf in the contest to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader, is more circumspect. She reckons the deal with the Greens should be discussed with members to find out whether they still support it (95 per cent did when Sturgeon signed the Bute House Agreement almost two years ago). It seems likely the deal with the Greens will be a big issue at the SNP’s annual conference in October. Senior nats, used to years of blind obedience from members, are steeling themselves for rebellion.

It isn’t difficult to see why SNP MSPs are getting twitchy about the Green deal. Controversial, Green-driven policies such as reform of the Gender Recognition Act, the failed deposit return scheme, and the abandoned highly protected marine areas plan have seen the SNP take a battering. Yousaf has been firefighting on Green priorities since taking office in March.

For now, Yousaf remains fully behind the Bute House Agreement. A key line of defence is that the agreement with the Greens, by creating a majority government, protects the SNP from opposition confidence motions. I’m not so sure the SNP needs this extra layer of defence.

Talking about the coming general election, SNP politicians explain that – in the event that Labour becomes the largest party but falls short of a majority – they would offer support in return for the power to hold a second independence referendum. The problem with this line is that the SNP has already shown its hand.

The party is adamant it’s opposed to “Tory rule” (a lie, of course. The SNP is perfectly happy to see Conservatives in power at Westminster because it fuels their cause) so what would it do when Sir Keir Starmer refused to play ball? Would the nationalists really open the door to another Tory government? No, they would not.

And nor, I think, would the Scottish Greens do anything to assist Labour or the Conservatives at Holyrood. If an opposition party voted against a budget, would the Greens really join them? Given the brutal nature of Green attacks on pro-UK parties, I think that vanishingly unlikely. If Yousaf’s sole reason for maintaining support for the Bute House Agreement is that the Greens prevent confidence motions, he is being too cautious.

The majority of those who voted in the SNP leadership elections backed candidates who don’t share the First Minister’s enthusiasm for the Green deal. Perhaps, rather than waiting for a party conference showdown, Yousaf should listen to the critical voices. The SNP has handed the Scottish Greens immense power when it could – and should – have taken them for granted.