If ever there was a time which offered political analysts a rich and unfolding body of evidence of the electoral climate in this country, it is the coming few weeks. By the time His Majesty the King concludes the State Opening of Parliament in November, we may be able to discern not only the likely month of the next general election, but the potential fortunes of the parties involved.

Three crucial by-elections – Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Tamworth, and Mid Bedfordshire – will test the resilience of the governing parties at both Westminster and Holyrood. The first of those by-elections in Rutherglen this coming Thursday will be an opportunity to measure what the impact of the SNP’s internal problems and governmental failures will have on their electoral chances.

Taken together with the other two ballots scheduled in England for October 19, the trio of results could also tell us the likely victors in that looming general election. We are also likely to learn whether the rash of policy announcements and leaks from Downing Street in recent weeks has done anything to stem the tide of voters away from Rishi Sunak’s Tories.

The net-zero fiasco, HS2 confusion and threat by Home Secretary Suella Braverman that the UK could leave the European Convention on Human Rights could all be taken as scene-setters for a potential early election. The contents of the King’s Speech and the Chancellor’s Autumn statement will tell us more about whether the Prime Minister will plump for a spring or autumn poll.

My own instincts are that those by-elections are likely to give him pause for thought. Campaigning is currently taking place against a background of a party conference season in which my own party, the Liberal Democrats, was the first to reveal the main thrust of our manifesto. It was a buoyant affair in Bournemouth, coming as it did in a period when the party is enjoying a period of historic by-election success.

Four wins so far in this parliament is reminiscent of the party’s growth under Paddy Ashdown which heralded in its most successful period – under Charles Kennedy, Sir Menzies Campbell and Nick Clegg – since the days of Lloyd George. And there is a potential fifth seat to gain in Mid Bedfordshire.

Labour, who have yet to take the conference stage, will be hoping to win back Tamworth, a seat which has been historically important to them. But in Scotland, it is Lanarkshire where our attention will be focused and it’s a part of the world which holds an unsurpassable place in the hearts of SNP supporters. It was in Hamilton that the late Winnie Ewing gave the party its electoral breakthrough in June 1967.

Now Rutherglen and Hamilton West could tell us whether their electoral dominance is nearing an end. On doorsteps across Scotland recently, canvassers have detected a diminishing confidence in, and support for, the nationalists. If that is translated into a defeat for the SNP on October 5, it could also tell us whether the much-heralded Labour revival in Scotland is a reality.

And with a potential double defeat down south, the Conservatives gathering in Manchester this week may feel the chill wind of change.

Christine Jardine is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West

SNP and Tories have reason to fear looming byelections as winds of change blow – Christine Jardine

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