Now, after the hottest June we know of, with wildfires raging across Canada, temperatures of more than 50C in the US, terrible floods in China, and cars floating in flooded Spanish streets, it’s not surprising that so many are increasingly worried about climate change.

Already, Scotland has played an important part in the battle to wake the world to the terrible effects of global warming. It hosted the COP26 climate summit and did much to make it such a success. The Scottish Government and all the major Scottish parties have signed up to getting to net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest and the tremendous contribution of Scottish renewable energy is helping the whole of Britain meet this goal.

At COP26, the UK led the world to sign up to net-zero. We even got close to agreeing to a clear phase-out for coal and oil generation. That was because, as the UK, we set the toughest commitments for 2030 and 2035. The world knew we were serious and many nations toughened up their own targets.

Since then, we have seen President Joe Biden revolutionise the US stance on climate and set a world-beating example in legislation which has encouraged the EU into much tougher action. China has announced very significant measures which will greatly accelerate their move to renewable energy. Worldwide, the direction of travel is clear and Scotland and the rest of the UK can be proud of the part we have played.

Not that there isn’t a great deal more to do. When we see what an increase in temperature of only 1.1C has done to our weather, the fact that the world is on course for an increase of between two and three degrees is terrifying.

There are many dark forces at work. Only recently I crossed swords on the radio with a prominent Republican activist who was lauding the intention of American fossil fuel companies to make sure that Africa turns to gas instead of renewables. It’s true that Africa desperately needs better sources of energy so people can get the development they deserve but not at the cost of destroying the world – their world as well as ours.

That’s why the rich nations pledged so much to help them install renewables. The UK has promised £11.6 billion to the worldwide fund which is now fully subscribed. With plenty of sun and wind, Africa only needs the finance and the technology to provide the cheapest energy possible.

The only people it doesn’t suit are the petrol giants, the ExxonMobils of this world. By their false propaganda, they have already held up the world’s response to climate, making the battle more costly and difficult and condemning many to die from floods and heat in the meantime. If the developing world is further caught in their coils, there is no way the world can avoid catastrophic climate change.

Nevertheless, we can’t ask poor countries to reject the blandishments of big oil and move direct to renewables, if we in the UK licence new oil ourselves. That decision undermines all that we worked for in Glasgow; all that Scotland is doing to reach net-zero; everything that individuals, local authorities, and churches are doing to fight the biggest material threat the world faces.

Of course, in the face of Putin’s evil invasion of Ukraine, it was right for the Climate Change Committee to accept the maximum immediate production of North Sea gas. We are not arguing about that but about plans to increase oil production which will come on stream in ten or more years’ time.

The International Energy Authority has made clear there can be no new oil exploitation if the world is to keep global heating to levels which can be handled. By 2030, major advanced countries will be using less oil and yet all the countries that produce it now will continue to bring it to market.

The UK will be able to buy from across the world. We won’t need more North Sea oil. Our present production will naturally decline as our needs decline. We will still have to face down the falsehoods of the climate delayers. Producing more of our own oil won’t make it cheaper than imports – the price we pay is the world price. We will still have to import oil, particularly for purposes for which ours is unsuitable. The world will have oil for all our declining needs and it is simply foolish to invest in what will be stranded assets.

But we recognise what we owe to all those who have kept the oil flowing. The Scottish and UK governments have got to ensure that new green jobs are there for those who, over the next few years, will be affected by the inevitable rundown. Aberdeen in particular must become one of the capitals of the new green industrial revolution. The UK must transform its economy by using the cheapest form of generation through renewables, building sustainable businesses, and therefore gaining increasing export markets. Stuck with the old fossil-fuelled industries, none of this will happen. Our economy will decline and the EU and the US will take the lead, leaving us behind.

Let’s choose the path which the great Scottish industrial visionaries would have chosen. They embraced change and helped to build the whole British economy on it. We can do the same. By seizing the opportunities presented by the world’s transition away from fossil fuels, we will not only help to win the battle against climate change but build a cleaner and more prosperous Scotland, through ensuring a fair transition in which we train and retrain for the new green jobs and reinforce the communities where the old jobs are lost. This is the future for Scotland and the whole of the UK.

Lord Deben is former chair of the Climate Change Committee, the independent advisors to the UK and Scottish governments, and a former Conservative Environment Secretary

Climate change: Oil industry's false propaganda has already condemned many to die and risks causing a global catastrophe – Lord Deben

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