One in four chance summer could be hottest ever

Four-year-old Isla Nisbet, with her dog Harvey, enjoying the sunny weather on North Berwick beach yesterday. Picture: Phil Wilkinson

Forecasters released the three-month weather outlook for the UK for June to August which  reveals Britons are likely to enjoy temperatures close to or above average over the summer.

Average mid-July temperatures are typically around 18-19C in Edinburgh and Glasgow and approximately 15-16C in coastal areas.

However, sun worshippers may not be able to bask in summer sunshine as the average temperatures take into account night-time conditions.

This means that whilst the UK is more likely to see above-average temperatures over the next three months, these could be reached by including those recorded for milder summer nights.

The Met Office’s 30-day forecast predicts that after yesterday’s changeable conditions, the weather will settle down with many areas having warm sunshine, although there are likely to be showers in the north-west.

“From mid-June to early July, the indications are that the weather will be close to what is climatologically normal for this time of year – giving us a tendency for occasional spells of unsettled weather interspersed with fine and warm spells, much as we have seen recently,” the Met Office blog said.

The predictions came as a second severe weather warning for heavy rain was issued in less than a week. Forecasters predicted scattered but potentially intense thundery downpours in areas of England.

The Met Office said the downpours could bring a risk of surface water flooding and there could be hail and gusting winds adding to difficulties in some areas. Around 20mm (0.8ins) of rain is predicted to fall in an hour in some areas.

A yellow “be aware” weather warning was issued by the Met Office for Yorkshire and Humber, the East and West Midlands, the east of England and London and south-east England.

The warnings indicated a moderate risk of some damage to infrastructure and local disruption.

Last night, Scotland appeared to have escaped the worst of the UK downpours with no flood alerts, flood warnings or severe flood warnings being issued by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency.

The Met Office issued a severe weather warning last week for Saturday with forecasts of heavy, thundery rain battering parts of southern Scotland, England and Wales.

But fears that some places could see flooding and an entire month’s rainfall in just one hour turned out to be misplaced, with Britain spared the worst as the summer storms swept the country.

The heaviest downpour was registered in Santon Downham, Suffolk, which saw 0.7in (18.2mm) fall in one hour, followed by 0.6in (16.4mm) falling in Bickley, Worcestershire, which fell well short of the 1.2in (30mm) – almost half of the UK monthly average for the whole of June of 2.9in (73.4mm) – which had been forecast as a possibility.

Last month, the Shard in London – western Europe’s tallest building – was struck by lightning during a thunderstorm.

A landmark study by the Met Office and Newcastle University published earlier this week warned that climate change could result in heavier summer rainfall in Britain, which in turn could increase the risk of flash flooding.