Poll: SNP decline stabilises despite police investigation as Nicola Sturgeon's personal ratings plummet

It comes as Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings plummet compared to March.

There is hope for independence campaigners and for First Minister Humza Yousaf with the damage suffered by the SNP appearing to stabilise, a new poll suggests.

Results show support for independence remains split down the middle among the Scottish public, with the SNP appearing to arrest its slide.

The findings come as Nicola Sturgeon’s personal approval ratings are shown to have plummeted since she left Bute House amid the context of the ongoing police investigation into SNP party finances.

First Minister Humza Yousaf during First Minister's Questions in the main chamber of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Picture: PA

The poll, undertaken by Savanta for The Scotsman, interviewed 1,018 Scottish adults aged 16 and over between Friday last week and Wednesday, covering the period of Ms Sturgeon’s arrest.

The former SNP leader was later released without charge, pending further investigation, with the same having happened to her husband and former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, and former party treasurer, Colin Beattie, following their arrests.

Despite the police probe, support for independence among Scots has stayed stable, while support for the SNP, despite dropping significantly on the Holyrood list vote, shows no significant decline or improvement in terms of Westminster and Holyrood constituency voting intentions.

However, the slump in support since the start of the year has opened the door for a potential rainbow unionist coalition at the next Holyrood election, with a small majority being held if Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats were able to do a deal.

The figures show a marginal growth in support for Yes since Humza Yousaf’s appointment as First Minister and SNP leader, with 46 per cent (up one point since the last Savanta for The Scotsman poll) of Scots stating they would vote Yes, and 47 per cent (no change) stating they would vote no. A further 7 per cent (down one point) said they did not know.

With don’t knows excluded, the figures sit at 49 per cent for Yes (up one point) and 51 per cent for No (down one point).

The SNP’s support is slightly down in terms of the coming Westminster election, which is due to take place before early 2025, with Mr Yousaf’s party down one point on 38 per cent and Scottish Labour up one point on 34 per cent.

The Scottish Conservatives are down two points to 17 per cent, the Scottish Liberal Democrats up one point to 7 per cent, and others make up 4 per cent (no change).

Such a result would see the SNP lose 21 seats, but still remain in first place with 27, with Labour behind on 22, up 21, and the Scottish Tories and Lib Dems both receiving five seats, down and up one respectively.

Figures suggest around one in six SNP voters in 2021 (16 per cent) are moving to Labour for the next Westminster election – an increase from the one in nine noted as doing so in polling in December last year.

In Holyrood terms, the SNP also retains first place ahead of Labour, but remain neck and neck with Mr Sarwar’s party on the Holyrood regional list vote.

Both parties sit on 28 per cent, the SNP down five points from late March and Labour down two points.

The Scottish Conservatives show no change on 18 per cent, while the Scottish Greens are up three points to 13 per cent and the Lib Dems up four points to 11 per cent.

Figures also suggest around one in five SNP voters in 2021 are shifting their list support to the Greens, with one in nine shifting to Labour and under two thirds (63 per cent) sticking with the SNP.

The constituency vote also remains largely static apart from a three point drop for the Scottish Conservatives to 16 per cent.

The SNP sits on 40 per cent, up one point, and Labour on 33 per cent, also up one point, while the Lib Dems sit on eight per cent, also up one point, and others unchanged on three per cent.

Such a result would see the SNP/Green coalition fall short of an overall majority in Holyrood by three seats, securing 62 seats between them (50 SNP and 12 Green).

However, with 12 more seats for Labour, bringing them up to 34, 21 seats for the Tories, down ten, and 12 seats for the Lib Dems, up eight, there would be an overall unionist majority of 67.

This could pave the way for similar deals to those across Scottish councils, with Labour running a minority government, propped up by Scottish Tory and Scottish Lib Dem votes, to keep the SNP out of power.

Figures from the poll also show a double-digit drop in Ms Sturgeon’s favourability, as police swarmed her home and set up forensic tents as they searched both her house and SNP headquarters in London in April.

In March, the last time this question was asked, the former first minister was the most popular politician in Scotland with a net favourability rating of +10.

However, that has plummeted by 17 per cent to -7, placing her below the closest challenger to her successor, Kate Forbes (+2, up four points from March), Anas Sarwar (-1, no change), and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (-3, down five points).

The former SNP leader has also seen drops in the number of people who view her as trustworthy, with 38 per cent stating that characteristic does apply, down 11 points, as honest (41 per cent, down ten points), and genuine (44 per cent, down 11 points).

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the independence question remained “finely balanced” despite Ms Sturgeon’s personal ratings.

He said: “How the mighty have fallen. When Savanta first started polling for The Scotsman, Nicola Sturgeon’s net favourability rating was +28; fast forward two-and-a-half years and it’s fallen to -7, the first time it’s been below zero, and the first time that she hasn’t been the most popular politician in Scotland.

“Although she’s no longer leader, one would expect these numbers to have an impact on the SNP’s polling, but it hasn’t. Perhaps, then, the damage has already been done; although this poll sees little change from the last one, Yousaf was leader by that point, and Sturgeon, theoretically, out of the picture, but by that point the SNP were polling lower than they ever had in Savanta polls. The unionists still sense an opportunity, and those parties combined would currently poll over 50 per cent, although we’re still a long way from the next Holyrood elections.

“And so, despite her personal controversy and ratings drop, the SNP marches on without Sturgeon. But what of independence? It always seemed that Sturgeon was so integral to her party and the cause, but Scotland is now so fiercely entrenched by Yes versus No, it goes far beyond one leader, and even one party.

"The independence question remains finely balanced, too close to call were a referendum tomorrow, and therefore there’s still a job to be done for those in the pro-independence camp, with or without Sturgeon as an asset.”