Analysis: West’s schedule for withdrawal is unlikely to change unless killings trigger mass violence

THE murders of at least 16 Afghans by what appears to be a single US soldier is likely to further infect the problematic relationship between the West and Kabul.

THE murders of at least 16 Afghans by what appears to be a single US soldier is likely to further infect the problematic relationship between the West and Kabul.

However, while it may provoke local attacks and protests, it is less likely to trigger the type of widespread violence that followed the Koran-burnings and thus have a less immediate impact on the strategy. Afghans in different parts of the country are already upset about night-raid casualties and airstrikes on what Isaf (International Security Assistance Force) calls IED emplacers and insurgent camps, while local communities may call it changing the irrigation flow according to the rotation schedule at night or families sleeping in the mountains when the summer heat is at its worst.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

These incidents where the absolute truth may often be hard to establish have usually led to localised protests but not triggered nation-wide violence.

This latest incident will, however, feed into the diplomatic stand-offs between Isaf nations and Kabul, centred on the continued presence of international forces after 2014. The Afghan caveats expressed at the recent Jirga primarily concerned control over detention facilities and a stop to night-raids, with the former now seemingly settled in favour of the Afghan position.

This latest incident feeds negative public perceptions of a foreign troop presence and night-raids, thus also shaping the options available for Afghan politicians.. Without widespread violence that makes the international presence immediately untenable, the schedule of withdrawal is unlikely to be affected to any greater extent.

Dr Karl Sandstrom is an expert on Afghanistan at the Global Insecurities Centre, University of Bristol.