Kate Forbes a divisive figure among voters as poll demonstrates defeated candidate may not improve SNP fortunes

The poll was commissioned by prospective Labour candidate Blair McDougall for his Notes on Nationalism newsletter

Kate Forbes is a divisive politician who would not be guaranteed to boost the fortunes of the SNP if she became leader, new polling has shown.

The survey, commissioned by former No campaign leader and prospective Labour candidate Blair McDougall for his Notes on Nationalism newsletter and undertaken by Find Out Now, asked whether the defeated leadership contender replacing Humza Yousaf would make voters more or less likely to vote for the SNP.

A total of 1,012 people were interviewed between August 22 and 28 for the survey.

Humza Yousaf hugs Kate Forbes in the main chamber during the vote for the new First Minister at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh.

The MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch came a close second to the new First Minister during the SNP leadership contest. She pitched her programme on economic growth, socially more conservative positions on aspects such as gender reforms, and on broadening out the appeal of the SNP to No voters.

However, she was also attacked by Mr Yousaf’s team for having the potential of dragging the SNP to the right. This comes despite the former finance secretary having defined herself as left wing and focused on the eradication of poverty.

Polling suggests rather than seeing swathes of voters move over to the SNP under Ms Forbes, that she is instead a divisive figure.

Among all voters, 17.4 per cent said they were more likely to vote for the SNP should she replace Mr Yousaf, with 9.3 per cent stating they would be far more likely to do so.

However, this was outweighed by 23.2 per cent of voters stating they would be less likely to vote SNP in such a scenario. The degree of opposition is also more strongly felt, with 16.6 per cent stating they would be far less likely to vote SNP.

The most popular answer was ‘don’t know’, with 59.4 per cent choosing it, suggesting there would be scope for Ms Forbes to convince the majority of voters of her merits.

Under Mr Yousaf, the SNP have slipped down the polls to being almost neck and neck with Scottish Labour in terms of Westminster voting intentions, but retain around a five-point lead in Holyrood constituency voting intentions.

Allies of Ms Forbes have spent the summer attacking the First Minister’s decision to retain the coalition deal with the Scottish Greens, while some have previously spoken of acting as a “government in waiting”. However, the polling suggests Ms Forbes would have a hard time winning voters from Scottish Labour.

Just under 16 per cent of 2019 Labour voters said they would be “more likely” to vote SNP should she replace Mr Yousaf, but 33 per cent said they would be less likely (28.9 per cent said far less likely).

Conservative voters are most likely to say they would be more willing to vote SNP, with 23.8 per cent stating Ms Forbes’s leadership would make them more likely to vote SNP, but 29.9 per cent said it would make them less likely.

She is also a split figure within the SNP, with 21.8 per cent of 2019 SNP voters saying they would be more likely to vote for the party again if she was in charge versus 25.5 per cent stating they would be less likely.