Are Tory MPs plotting to oust Rishi Sunak, and who would replace him? Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch

Rishi Sunak is struggling to maintain discipline within the Tory party

It is no secret that some Tory MPs are unhappy with Rishi Sunak, but it is, however, unknown just how many have escalated this unhappiness to writing a letter of no confidence.

Reports this week claim 40 MPs have written to the chair of the 1922 committee Graham Brady, just 13 short of the 53 needed to trigger a vote. But it is worth noting we have been here before, with the premierships of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson rife with claims over how many letters had gone in, when in fact, only Mr Brady knows.

What we do know is these reports do not come from nowhere. They aren’t just MPs telling journalists things for the sake of it. They are trying to assert pressure and momentum, bouncing colleagues into joining their cause. It is more telling that only two MPs, Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Sir Simon Clarke, have gone public with their desire for a change.

Rishi Sunak is fighting to maintain control of his party.

Speaking to MPs, they explain while there are moves afoot to oust Mr Sunak, it is as yet not expected to deliver a change before the election, and is instead rival factions laying the groundwork to blame each other for failure, or claim certain members of the Cabinet were never trying anyway.

One Cabinet member accused of this is Penny Mordaunt, who is said to be Tory right’s preferred candidate to replace the Prime Minister. The Leader of the House denies all knowledge of any plot, and her allies accuse the right of trying to smear her, pointing out they conspired to stop Ms Mordaunt in the previous leadership election. Whatever her intentions, polling is being circulated by Tories that show Ms Mordaunt would do better at the election than Mr Sunak. How much Tory MPs value this could change depending on the scale of the sweeping losses expected in May’s local elections.

Another name being suggested is security minister Tom Tugendhat, another member of the Cabinet the right had previously demonised. Their view has changed, though his perhaps hasn’t. Despite speculation about being the long-term favourite of Tory MPs, Mr Tugendhat has expressed his support for the Prime Minister, saying it is “not the right time” for a new leader. Both ministers believe they are the victims of plotters seeking to tarnish their credentials.

Then there are the names less close to Mr Sunak, those that enraged Downing Street as far back as Tory conference, when they were accused of going into business for themselves. This includes business secretary Kemi Badenoch and former home secretary Suella Braverman.

The former is said to be holding regular meetings to discuss “policy” with MPs. However, one MP told The Scotsman it was a “leadership drinks in all, but name”, while the latter continues to criticise the direction of government.

Regardless of who is plotting and has sent letters, the noise around it only weakens Downing Street’s control of the narrative. What might happen is the talk of Westminster, rather than what the Prime Minister wants to happen.

Former defence secretary Ben Wallace highlighted the indecision and frustration within the party over the weekend. He said: “Whether colleagues are happy with him or not, it’s too late, right. Get on with it.”