Exclusive:Attacks on Police Scotland officers could be ‘sign of things to come’ without adequate funding, senior figure warns, as budget cuts loom

New president of Association of Scottish Police Superintendents says business case for single nationwide force is ‘at risk’

Violent public disorder flashpoints such as the attacks on police seen in Edinburgh, Dundee and Glasgow in recent weeks could be a “sign of things to come” unless Police Scotland is provided with sufficient resources to remain connected with communities across the country, one of the force’s most senior officers has warned.

Chief Superintendent Rob Hay, president of the Association of Scottish Police Superintendents (ASPC), said unless the service is properly funded, such ugly incidents will occur “more frequently”. He warned that cuts to the policing budget had put the entire business case for a single national force “at risk”, with a “postcode lottery” hampering access to specialist officers and equipment.

In his first interview since assuming the presidency of the association, which represents senior operational leaders in the force, Ch Supt Hay said senior officers were “preparing for the worst” ahead of the new budget settlement from the Scottish Government, and pointed out that existing financial pressures meant some rural areas of the country were losing out.

The Government is expected to announce their tax and spending plans for 2024/25 in less than three weeks, but pressure is already mounting on ministers to ensure the policing budget is not subject to a real-terms cut. On Thursday, the Scottish Police Authority heard from James Gray, Police Scotland’s chief finance officer, who said as many as 3,110 officer and staff jobs would be put at risk without further investment.

Finance secretary Shona Robison has already said the public sector workforce will have to shrink as a result of what she called “one of the most difficult budgets” in Scotland’s post-devolution era. The statement has sparked warnings that a flat-cash settlement – equivalent to a £161 million real-terms cut over four years – would result in a “significant disruption to services” and a reduction in visible local policing.

Now, Ch Supt Hay has said the repercussions of that would be felt far and wide, describing it as a “perfect storm” that had left many of the strategic benefits of reform of the police service being severely challenged.

“As we see more and more of our workforce having to deal with emergency policing, is that connection with communities potentially at risk?” he asked. “When you look at some of the public order challenges we’ve had in Niddrie, Dundee and Glasgow, is that a sign of things to come if we’re unable to be connected to and recognised by communities? Do we just become a uniform at which public rage can be expressed?

Chief Superintendent Rob Hay, president of the Association of Scottish Police Superintendents, which represents senior operational leaders in the force. Picture: John Devlin

“I’m thankful to say that nowhere in Scotland could you describe a street or an area as a no-go area, and that’s something we should jealously guard, because it means that the communities still recognise us as a service that’s here for them. That shouldn’t be taken for granted, because if it isn’t funded properly, that’s something we could lose a connection to. And if that happens, you will see the scenes that we saw in Niddrie and Dundee more frequently.”

Ch Supt Hay said a continued lack of funding would not only erode the hard-won trust between police and the communities they serve, but the ability of officers to solve murders and other serious crimes. He said: “We need witnesses, we need people that trust the police and will speak to us, and we know that the police do not enjoy that level of trust in every community in the UK. It’s that historic connection between police and communities that’s at risk right now.”

One of the key arguments behind the formation of a single national service a decade ago was a revised local policing model that provides equal access to specialist police officers and equipment, no matter where or when the demand. But Ch Supt Hay said the financial constraints the force was operating under meant such access was being undermined.

“If you look at mounted branch officers, for example, who are quite a usual sight in the west of Scotland at football games, access to those specialist services in the further reaches of the country is virtually impossible at the moment, because of the cost of stabling the horses overnight, and paying the overnight allowances of officers,” he explained.

“Part of the whole purpose of Police Scotland was to create equal access to those services, yet the budgetary position has forced us into a situation where if you’re located close by to where they’re brigaded, you might get access. Otherwise you won’t. It’s a postcode lottery situation that Police Scotland was designed to counteract.”

He added: “If we find ourselves in the position laid out in James Gray’s report, those trends will be significantly accelerated, and we’ll get to a position where the standard of service that the public will have to get used to will be one that we’ve never offered in the modern era. It will be a significant deterioration in the offer from Police Scotland – not because that’s what we want to do, but because we have no other option from a budgetary standpoint.”

While considerable political attention has been focused on the overall decline in the force’s officer numbers – down from around 17,500 in 2013 to 16,600 today – Ch Supt Hay said rationalisation measures and a doubling in the retirement rate last year has left the force bemoaning the loss of senior, experienced officers at a time of institutional flux.

One unwelcome legacy of that, he added, was those who remain are being asked to meet “unsustainable” asks. On average, each chief superintendent is owed ten rest days, while each superintendent is owed eight rest days. Both ranks also have the highest proportions of temporary or acting officers throughout the force.

“Since the advent of Police Scotland, the actual number of superintendents and chief superintendents has reduced by over a quarter,” Ch Supt Hay said. “No other rank has undergone such stark reductions in numbers

“This is a cohort of individuals who you want to be at their best all the time, because of the decisions they are going to have to make. An endless squeeze on numbers with the intention of saving money is not conducive either to their wellbeing, or the service that the public deserves.”

He urged Ms Robison to carefully consider the “purpose of policing”, and said proper funding was required to enhance the safety and wellbeing of the public. “The key question at the moment is ‘what is our operating model?’” he said. “Operational decisions are always the chief constable’s, and that’s one of the basic tenets of what we do, but there’s a question for the Government around what sort of police force it wants for the country.”