Bridge - The Scotsman - 24/03/2012
You have seven sure tricks, eight if you win this trick with the king of spades. The only suit that can realistically provide an extra trick is clubs. You will obviously try the club finesse, but if it fails South will return a spade.
If North started with five spades (quite likely in view of his lead card) he may be able to cash four spades for one down. If West had Axxx in spades it would be obvious to hold up. Now that the queen has been played the KJ are sure to provide a trick, so you should hold up in the same way.
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Hide AdSouth will continue with the seven of spades, the higher of his remaining two spades, confirming your suspicion that North has led from a five–card suit. You might cover the seven with the jack, and if North takes the ace and clears the suit all will be well. When South wins the king of clubs he will be out of spades, and your contract is secure.
But suppose North ducks the jack of spades? Now when South wins the king of clubs he can lead a third spade and North will make three winners. To make your game you must hold up twice: duck the queen of spades, and the seven, just as you would with Axxx. North can win the third round, but he makes only three spade tricks.