Six Nations: One final chance to redeem another ‘if only’ kind of season

WELL, very evidently, we are not where we hoped to be. We are not where we thought a few weeks ago that we would be.

But there it is. Here we are again, in Rome, competing to avoid the wooden spoon. Victory is obviously essential, but a narrow win, achieved in scrappy and nervous style, would do very little to console us for the disappointments of recent weeks. Once again, we will be thrown back on the “if onlys..” If only we had beaten England as we should have done, how different our season might have been – how different England’s too.

Italy start as favourites. They are at home where, over the past two tournaments, they have beaten France and run both England and Ireland mighty close. They have a formidable pack, especially strong in the set scrum where we have been struggling badly Their line-out is good, and, in their captain Sergio Parisse at No 8, they have a great player who would be in most people’s selection of a composite Six Nations XV. (Richie Gray is probably the only Scot who would be in that team.)

The Italians have improved their continuity play without, however, being able to turn possession into tries. That’s to say, they have been playing much as we have: lots of passes completed, lots of phases, a few breaks or half-breaks, not much to show for it. Their coach, Jacques Brunel, has been trying to get then playing a more expansive game, but this has been hampered by his inability to find an effective half-back partnership, and also by his own inconsistent selection.

It’s a surprise to see that Luke McLean has been dropped; he has been one of their more dangerous runners for the past couple of years. We may be happy too that they still have no reliable goal-kicker. Their defence has been good against England and Wales, but was poor against France and Ireland.

In short, the two teams are in a similar position, and not only because each has suffered four defeats. The pattern of their play has been much the same: enjoying periods of dominance without scoring tries to press home the advantage, then making defensive mistakes which opened the door to the opposition.

Neutrals have been sympathetic to Scotland this season, admiring much in the way the team has played. Some of the statistics are impressive – or not, depending on how you read them. If we make more passes and put together more phases, even make more breaks than our opponents, this is partly because we fail to capitalise on the possession we have. Going through a dozen phases without scoring a try will see you complete many more passes than will a team which scores from second or third phase.

One of the worrying features of the French and Irish matches was that our scrum got worse the longer the game lasted. This would seem to suggest that we need to be well ahead by half-tine if we are to beat Italy. Alternatively, we might make fewer substitutions.

Much as ever will depend on the performance of the back-row. Here, despite the excellence of Parisse, we may have the advantage. David Denton and Ross Rennie have been consistently good, and John Barclay had a fine game against France. At half-back Mike Blair and Greig Laidlaw have much more to offer than their Italian opposite numbers, and Blair has been arguably the most dangerous running scrum-half in the championship. Yet, as ever, halves can function effectively only if the forwards can provide them with quick clean ball.

There is probably little between the three-quarters. None of those playing today would get into any other team in the championship, even though an impartial observer might prefer Mirco Bergamasco to England’s out-of-form Chris Ashton. One can only hope that Nick De Luca, who has a certain flair, can reproduce his best Edinburgh form in a Scotland jersey. At full-back Andrea Masi hasn’t quite matched his outstanding form of 2011, while young Stuart Hogg may have discovered in Dublin that international rugby wasn’t quite as smooth going as it may have seemed in his first two outings. That said, he is likely to have more opportunities to run than he did last week, because Italy tend to kick more often than Ireland, and not nearly as well.

It is good that Andy Robinson has resisted the temptation to tinker with the side, or, worse, make sweeping changes, often the sign of a coach who has lost his nerve. If things go badly, the summer tour offers him the chance to experiment. Meanwhile, as he said, the players deserve the chance to make amends for their failure in Dublin, and to show that they are a better team than they looked last week.

Much will depend on the ability of Ross Ford, Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton and the back-row trio to drive deep into the Italian defence and impose themselves on the game. If they manage to do this, then we should win – if, that is, the backs show more precision in their passing than was the case in Dublin.