Six Nations: Andy Robinson’s future on line as sorry Scots lose again

Every Scotland coach has been here, enduring barren runs and moments of great promise brought crashing to earth by a below-par display, and after two poor tournaments the former England and British and Irish Lions chief is now at the point in a third of staring at a weekend in which his future as Scotland boss is on the line.

Robinson’s record now stands at 12 wins in 28 Test matches and, worse, just two victories in 14 Six Nations games. It may be better by ratio of overall wins to defeats than his predecessor Frank Hadden’s, who finished a four-year spell with 16 victories in 41 Tests – he did triumph in six championship games out of 20 – but even if Scotland win their final match away to Italy on Saturday, it would be the sixth tournament in a row with just one Scottish success. Not the statistics of progress.

Hadden and the SRU parted company in 2009 after the Scot had led his side through three such championships with little evidence of improvement, and on Saturday night in Dublin a forlorn Robinson was grappling for positives with which to prepare for a best-case scenario that continues that trend.

SRU president Ian McLauchlan elucidated what everyone else is thinking, that the pressure on Robinson to uncover a result in Rome could hardly be greater. But he is fervent in his belief that Scotland will win for only a third time in Italy, and first since 2006.

Robinson has, however, added to the pressure through bringing in new coaches in Australian duo Scott Johnson and Matt Taylor, neither of whom have a track record in international rugby, and dispensing with the defence chief Graham Steadman and young attack coach, Gregor Townsend, whom he was grooming as a potential head coach in years to come.

Robinson insisted privately a month ago that the suggestion in some quarters that he had served notice on Townsend in the same way he had Steadman was inaccurate, and that he hoped Townsend would remain with him for the duration of his time as Scotland’s head coach, possibly even replacing him after 2015.

He accepted that there was pressure on them all to turn around Scotland’s run of defeats and as such no-one’s future was secure. The knives were out in some sections of the media for Townsend from the start of the campaign, and they were sharpened after the opening two losses.

Robinson was also eyeing the British and Irish Lions post going into this championship, but knew that he needed a minimum of three wins to stand a chance of displacing favourite Warren Gatland for the 2013 tour, so when Scotland lost to France and that was blown he appears to have changed tack.

Johnson was viewed as a mentor for Townsend, but also a caretaker boss should Robinson be given a year off on Lions’ duty. He will now replace the winning Lions fly-half as attack coach. Taylor, a former team-mate of Townsend from their days at the Borders, made an impression on Robinson in helping to set up Scotland’s World Cup training camp in his native Queensland, and with his defensive methods with Super Rugby champions the Reds.

Glasgow coach Sean Lineen was only informed last week of the plan to replace him with Townsend, and the attack coach apparently offered the position just days before that. Lineen accepted a new SRU role, now being hurriedly formalised, working to identify Scots-qualified players around the world and nurturing age-grade talent, which leaked out almost as soon as he had said ‘yes’.

Robinson formulated the plan with SRU director of performance rugby, Graham Lowe, and with the full support of chief executive Mark Dodson, but the speed of the move smacks of a sudden lack of faith in Townsend within the Test environment or an attempt to protect his protégé from the fall-out should he be sacked or quit the Scotland post.

There is also a fear that the shift now could damage progress made, however small, by the Scotland and Glasgow squads. With the national squad, Robinson is taking away an attack coach whose ideas players were beginning to grasp and enthuse about – prior to Saturday at least – and replacing him with an Aussie in Johnson who has had a chequered past and a reputation forged on innovative, ‘blue-sky’ ideas.

He may be a terrific addition, but, setting aside the fact that we heard similar talk when Australian Matt Williams endured a short and contentious period in charge, 2004-5, as his approach jarred with Scottish players and coaches, it promises more upheaval three years from the next World Cup.

Townsend has through that period worked to inculcate new attacking methods in players with the support of Edinburgh and Glasgow coaches, and regular skills coaching at those clubs on top of the national squad camps.

The quality of attack has improved and, against France, brought a growing agreement that increased line-breaks, improved threat and tries were signs of progress, while the emergence of skilled youngsters such as Stuart Hogg and Lee Jones, who have worked closely with Townsend, offered fresh hope.

It suffered a severe jolt in Dublin on Saturday when the Scots fell back into old habits, dominating possession for spells but failing to seriously trouble Ireland’s defence. But, as depressed as they were afterwards, senior players remained strong in their belief that the team was capable of more now than a few years ago.

However, with Townsend joining Glasgow in June, how long will Johnson need, from when he steps in on the summer tour, to change players and coaches to his way of thinking? Bear in mind he is expected to remain largely in Australia outside international periods.

Robinson is under pressure for what he achieves, or fails to achieve, with Scotland and not ultimately how his decisions affect Glasgow, but he is starting to run short of time to make a difference and re-drafting coaching teams will not lighten that.