Scotland v New Zealand: Black magic needed to conjure up a win

• Fronting up: Head coach Andy Robinson needs his team to stick to a disciplined game plan. Photograph: Lynne Cameron/PA

'If at first you don't succeed..." is all very well, but after 27 failed attempts to beat the All Blacks over the course of 105 years, Scotland might be just tempted to give up on it as a bad job and instead concentrate on achieving something simple like cold fusion or peace in the Middle East.

It isn't likely, especially on Andy Robinson's watch, and at least the Wallabies have done us a favour by reminding everyone of one simple truth that has been with us as long as sport itself. All great teams look invincible -right up to the point that they lose.

"They do the basics very well," said Robinson last week of New Zealand and he's usually right, but not this time. Last weekend the All Blacks made an uncharacteristic number of errors in Hong Kong, largely as a result of the pressure Australia brought to bear.

The Kiwis made three forward passes and knocked the ball on six times. They lost the try count 4-3, the turnover count 6-3 and more importantly they found themselves on the wrong side of a 13-7 penalty count. If Scotland are to have any chance of upsetting the form book they need to force New Zealand into making mistakes and hope that English referee Dave Pearson blows what he sees and not what he expects.

Graham Henry is almost certain to utilise his squad when they arrive in Edinburgh. Half a dozen changes to the team that played at Twickenham yesterday is the minimum anyone expects. His opposite number insisted that anyone sporting that famous black shirt was a "great player" but still Robinson will offer up a quiet prayer of thanks if Stephen Donald rather than Dan Carter fills the No.10 shirt, not least because of the problems he has finding a Scottish fly-half with two working legs to do a shift.

By the time kick-off looms, Dan Parks won't have played a game for five weeks and the only real alternative, Ruaridh Jackson, has played not one minute of one Test match. Asking a 22-year-old to make his debut against the All Blacks from the start is surely outlawed by the Geneva Convention, although the young reserve will presumably get his chance at some point in proceedings. Parks' problem is mirrored by the team as a whole. While the All Blacks have enjoyed two tough hits-outs against top-class opposition, Scotland haven't played since June. Moreover, the likely forward pack boasts two players, Richie Gray and Richie Vernon, who boast just six caps between them, and there is a huge skills gap between the All Black back division and almost every side in the world, with the possible exception of Australia.

Scotland are missing potential starters Nick De Luca and Simon Danielli to injury, while Euan Murray hasn't been over-burdened with excessive game time after just one start all season for his club Northampton. The inspirational Al Kellock is also out of the reckoning for this one.

Robinson's response to all these worries was a phlegmatic "we are where we are", which at least has the twin benefits of brevity and unquestionable accuracy; not that anyone should confuse his innate pragmatism with fatalism.

Robinson will probably take a leaf from John Major's book and go "back to basics" in an effort to secure that elusive win over New Zealand. On the basis that prevention is better than cure, he will pick the very best set-piece side available; if the Kiwis don't have the ball not even their most gifted runner can score tries. Robinson needs to be sure his team will win their own set-piece possession to take the sting out of the game, slow things down when needs be.

When Scotland clear their lines they can't afford to hoof the ball aimlessly downfield because whatever back three New Zealand field will run it back with interest. Instead Parks will be instructed to put the ball into the stands and the two giant locks will be asked to dismantle the Kiwi lineout just as Kellock and Jim Hamilton did in Dublin

In selection terms, this strategy translates into Euan Murray getting the nod over Moray Low in the front row because of his scrumming ability (not to mention all that pent up frustration from being left on the sidelines) while Richie Gray and Jim Hamilton are the likely starters in the second row because of their ability at the sidelines and the restart. Will it be enough? Probably not.

The Scots have their own Achilles heel in the midfield, an obvious area of strength for the visitors where one Kiwi pundit reckoned on Conrad Smith starting outside Sonny Bill Williams. For Scotland the redoubtable Graeme Morrison will probably be flanked by two players, Parks and Max Evans, who both have their merits, but bone-crushing defence is not amongst them. Because of his size, Evans has to tackle around the ankles and, by placing him in the outside centre channel, Robinson is inviting the All Blacks to get their off-loading game going.

Scotland's best hope lies in Kiwi complacency. It's exactly 20 years since the men in blue last gave them a real hurry up and the long run of easy wins may have taken some of the edge off this All Blacks machine. Moreover, Henry has one eye on the horizon where the World Cup is looming. He won't mind losing to Scotland too much if he learns a few important truths about some of his players now rather than in next year semi-finals.

A home win isn't likely, but neither is it impossible given the strides this squad has taken under Robinson. Even if the Scots fall short of victory, the manner of their defeat is vital for the future well-being of this side. Above all else the Scottish attack needs to pose some serious questions in order to maintain the momentum gained by three consecutive Test wins because Scotland, too, have genuine aspirations in next year's Rugby World Cup.

Possible XV

15 Hugo Southwell

14 Rory Lamont

13 Max Evans

12 Graeme Morrison

11 Sean Lamont

10 Dan Parks

9 Mike Blair

1 Allan Jacobsen

2 Ross Ford

3 Euan Murray

4 Jim Hamilton

5 Richie Gray

6 Kelly Brown

7 John Barclay

8 Richie Vernon