Horse racing: A true jewel in the crown

So why has Carlton House so few friends among the cognoscenti ahead of his attempt to win the Investec Derby at Epsom next Saturday?

There has been an almost concerted effort to "get" Carlton House. You sometimes really do wonder if certain pundits are in the pay of the bookies, who are desperate to get punters to put their money on any horse other than the Queen's, such are their liabilities on the favourite.

I cannot deny the evidence of my own eyes, however, and of the entrants left in the Blue Riband, Carlton House has shown the best evidence of being the likely winner, having won the Group 2 totesport Dante Stakes at York 17 days ago to stamp himself as a colt of the highest class.

Since then the hype has grown exponentially about the colt, because the whole racing world and the great British public would dearly love to see the Queen finally win a Derby at the tenth time of asking, her previous best being second-placed Aureole as long ago as 1953, the year of her coronation.

I do believe Carlton House is the one to break the streak. A son of 2002 Dubai World Cup victor Street Cry out of Bustino's daughter Talented, Carlton House won the Dante cosily despite not being fully tuned up. He was nowhere near fully fit and still very green, yet won staying on well to suggest he will get the Derby distance, and that was despite the lack of a strong gallop and the colt pulling hard in the first half of the race.

With the experience of years of following Sir Michael Stoute's fortunes in the Derby, all the way back to Shergar in 1981, and more pertinently, having seen how he prepared his most recent winners Kris Kin, North Light and Workforce to reach their peak on Derby Day, I suggest that Carlton House was very much not the finished article in the Dante. Indeed, I was reminded irresistibly of North Light, who won the 2004 Dante for Stoute in almost identical fashion - he pulled hard early then knuckled down to win staying on well - before appearing at Epsom and winning comfortably.

Carlton House's jockey, Ryan Moore, showed he has mastered Epsom with his Derby-Oaks double last year, and my only doubt would be if the ground came up super fast - the weather forecast suggests that's possible but the racecourse executive is going to water the track.

In my book, only three horses stand a chance of catching Carlton House. The first of these is Pour Moi, which French trainer Andre Fabre says is his best chance ever to win the Derby.Though he has yet to name his contenders, Aidan O'Brien's pair Recital and Seville should also make a challenge, but I believe they will all be princelings to Her Majesty's King of Epsom.

The Derby meeting kicks off on Friday with the Investec Oaks in which Frankie Dettori should win aboard 1,000 Guineas heroine Blue Bunting.

That day's Investec Coronation Cup will be a fascinating clash between the great mare Midday and O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey, and I take Henry Cecil's mare to win.