The physicist analysed data from every tournament since 1966 – and the conclusion is he reckons the heat, altitude and distance from home could all scupper England’s chances.
But he thinks the prospects for Roy Hodgson’s men will be improved if they get a European referee for their group stage match with Uruguay.
This is because Prof Hawking reckons match officials from the northern hemisphere will be less sympathetic to the on-pitch dramatics of the mercurial Uruguay and Liverpool striker Luis Suarez.
Prof Hawking, author of the bestselling A Brief History Of Time, has also come up with “a formula for the perfect penalty” – because “as we say in science, England couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo”.
Setting out his analysis, which was commissioned by bookmakers Paddy Power, Prof Hawking said: “Ever since the dawn of civilisation, people have not been content to see events as unconnected and inexplicable. They have craved an understanding of the underlying order in the world. The World Cup is no different.”