Allan Massie: Inspired by Mouse that roared, fast-forward Scots could be undoing of mighty visitors

The list includes the last one two years ago, when a mostly second-string New Zealand side ran in four tries to win by 32-6. This was especially disappointing because that autumn we ran South Africa very close, losing 10-14 in a match that could, perhaps should, have been won.

As it is, the only Scots to have featured on the winning side in a full international against New Zealand did so wearing a Lions jersey.

There is one exception, or sort of exception. No official internationals were played in 1946, but in that year Scotland beat the New Zealand Army, certainly not far short of a full All Blacks side, 11-6 at Murrayfield.

Douglas Elliot maintained that was one of Scotland's greatest performances, too often forgotten. Incidentally, in the Victory Internationals that spring, for which no caps were awarded, Scotland won four of the other five matches played. They beat Wales home and away, Ireland at Murrayfield, lost to England at Twickenham and thumped them 27-0 in the return at Murrayfield.

"We were a very good team that year," Elliot told me. The championship resumed, officially, the next year and we lost all four games. Very Scottish.

Elliot featured, and led from the front, in a close encounter against the All Blacks in 1954, when we lost only 0-3 to a penalty kick from full-back Bob Scott. What was extraordinary about that game is that it was number 13 or 14 in our string of 17 successive defeats. The 1953-4 All Blacks were not, however, one of the greatest New Zealand sides - solid but without sparkle or flair, not a bit like the present McCaw-Carter lot.

In the more than half a century since, we have managed two draws (0-0 in 1964, 25-25 in the autumn of 1983 - this a prelude to our first Grand Slam since the day Murrayfield was opened in 1925.) There have been a couple of close-run things, both, surprisingly, in New Zealand: 4-11 at Dunedin in 1981 and 18-21 against David Sole's team, fresh from its Grand Slam in 1990. This last still stirs bitter memories of a refereeing mistake by Wales's Derek Bevan which cost us what would have been the most famous of victories.

One might add the World Cup third-place play-off game at Cardiff in 1991, when we went down 13-6. And, er, that's about it. In the 11 matches since, the margin of defeat has never been less than 12 points and often very much more.

Given this depressing record, one can only hope that Andy Robinson has been telling his charges that Henry Ford got it right when he said "History is bunk". Admittedly, recent history is not very encouraging either.Scotland did indeed beat Australia a year ago, for the first time since 1982 after a run of 15 defeats, and they are unbeaten in their last four matches. New Zealand, however, have won 16 of their last 17, suffering only a two-point injury time loss to Australia, and they are ranked number one in the world, a ranking few would dispute. Then this is our first match since May and we may be rusty, while the All Blacks are coming off a successful Tri-Nations and won comfortably at Twickenham last week.

Moreover, we are still finding it confoundedly difficult to score tries, having failed to do so in either that defeat of Australia or the second victory in Argentina, when all our 24 points came from Dan Parks's boot.

The All Blacks are unlikely to concede so many kickable penalties, while we can be pretty certain that they will score at least a couple of tries, no matter how well-organised our defence may be.

It is pretty well axiomatic that unless you are South Africa, you will beat New Zealand only if you score more tries than they do.

England had three try-scoring chances at Twickenham last week and muffed them all before they did manage to cross the All Blacks' line once. It is not, by the way, only recent Scotland teams that have found try-scoring difficult. Even the 1990 Grand Slam side scored only six in their four matches - England scored twice as many yet finished second. The record for international tries is still shared by Ian Smith and Tony Stanger with 24 each.

The Welsh record-holder, Shane Williams, has scored more than Smith and Stanger combined. So it's reasonable to ask where the tries are coming from.

Andy Robinson and his predecessor, Frank Hadden, have far too often seen their teams create try-scoring opportunities and then fail to take them because of a mis-timed pass or a player taking the wrong option. Yet there is reason for some optimism. We are, for instance, producing more ball-playing forwards than we used to do - some of young Richie Gray's handling and off-loading for Glasgow this season has been of the highest class - and the present interpretation of the law at the breakdown might have been tailored to suit a fast-breaking scrum-half like Mike Blair. One has the impression that if we can play the game fast enough, driving forward hard, then this Scotland team is capable of scoring tries - even against New Zealand. It has a nice blend of experience and youth. What we must not do is kick loosely and give New Zealand time and space to run the ball back.

All good things come to an end. So maybe bad things do, too. One man with experience of beating New Zealand is this year's President of the SRU and 1971 Lion, Ian McLauchlan.As captain against Wales in 1973, the Mighty Mouse asked the president of the SRU and selectors to leave the dressing-room before the match and then gave what Andy Irvine called "one of the most inspirational team-talks" he ever heard.

Scotland won 10-9 against JPR, Gerald, Gareth, Phil Bennett and Co. Gerald Davies later said the Scottish "ferocity was incredible, and you could see the Mouse's influence in the way Scotland took the game to Wales."

Maybe Andy Robinson should call the president in.