Allan Massie: A free-flowing match would be nice, but victory is key

Some six months before their World Cup triumph, England eventually overwhelmed and outpaced a good Scotland side to win 40-9. It was a tremendous display of powerful and skilful running rugby, and it’s a measure of just how good Martin Johnson’s side was that there isn’t a single member of today’s England XV who would have improved it.

Stuart Lancaster’s team is very much an unknown quantity, which is unusual. Normally one knows what to expect – and what to fear – from England. Today, despite the presence of backs – Ben Foden, Chris Ashton and Ben Youngs – of whom one has reason to be wary, England are fielding the least experienced side to have come to Murrayfield for a very long time. They will, of course, be hard and fit, and there is plenty of pace in their back division. They may prove to be very good, or at least to have the makings of a very good side.

The England Saxons teams that Lancaster has coached have generally played expansive rugby, and the team he has picked for today looks capable of playing in that style too, if it is allowed to do so. The Saxons, it should be said, have usually been a good deal stronger and better organised than their opponents in, for instance, the Churchill Cup, and it’s one thing to run in tries when you are well on top, quite another when you are harassed and denied space.

Playing against an inexperienced or experimental side, it is almost always important to exert pressure on them early on. The longer the game remains even, the more likely it is that they will gain in confidence and cohesion. So one would look to see Scotland seeking to impose themselves and to prevent England from settling into a pattern of play.

It will be important to compete at the breakdown as Ireland did so successfully against England in Dublin last March. There is a tendency in the English Premiership for teams to commit very few players to the breakdown, preferring to stand off and keep a strong defensive line in being. If England do indeed play like that, one would hope to see the Scottish forwards taking the ball through the middle and then looking to off-load.

Dave Ellis, who used to be France’s defensive coach, this week called Scotland “the most efficient side in the Six Nations. Their ability to keep hold of the ball for phase after phase is staggering”. Of course, it is what we don’t manage to do at the end of these phases that accounts for our failure to score as many tries as our build-up suggests we should.

Enough, probably too much, has been said by many, probably too many, about Andy Robinson’s half-back selection. So there’s not much worth adding. The case against Dan Parks is that he has been in or around the team for eight seasons, during which time our Six Nations record has been poor – played 40, won 9, drawn 1, lost 30, and we have found great difficulty in scoring tries. So it‘s time for a change of direction. But, of course, responsibility for this poor record has to be shared, and it is absurd to suggest that our inability to score tries is due solely to inadequacies at number 10. Ours has been a collective failure. The case for Parks is that he has strengths as well as weaknesses and has been at the heart of some of our too rare successes.

So he retains Andy Robinson’s confidence and we must hope he has a good game. He may not be the world’s greatest tackler, but then neither is Charlie Hodgson, his opposite number today. One imagines that David Denton and Sean Lamont will be aiming to run hard at Hodgson.

Parks has been chosen as our most accurate kicker from hand. He will need to be at his best today, and Chris Cusiter’s box-kicks will have to be spot on, because kicks that are off target will allow England’s back three to run the ball, and Foden, Ashton and David Strettle are all very dangerous when given space.

The two front fives are probably evenly matched. So the outcome may depend on which of the two back rows achieves dominance. Even without Kelly Brown, who is the kind of player coaches love because he always seems to make the right decision, we look well-equipped to do so. Ross Rennie is a natural 7 as the new England captain Chris Robshaw may not be, and both Alastair Strokosch and David Denton are powerful ball-carriers. Denton looks and plays like a young Simon Taylor – and what more could one ask for?

Well, of course, we would like to see Scotland score tries, and our own back three, Rory Lamont, Lee Jones and Max Evans are all natural try-scorers if given only a little space, either by their team-mates or on the counter-attack. But, while one hopes for a more flowing match than recent Calcutta Cup games at Murrayfield, the first day of the tournament is one on which victory, no matter how it is achieved, is essential – especially in a year when there are three away matches and the only remaining home one is against France, who are rightly favourites for the title. Lose at home today and the journey to Wales next week doesn’t look very inviting.