Scottish Parliament elections: SNP's divisions may be a gift to unionist camp but Nicola Sturgeon is still heading for victory – Scotsman comment

The SNP is famous for its discipline despite being a coalition that spans much of the political spectrum.

Divisions between supporters of Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, pictured in 2014 ahead of the independence referendum, may be damaging support for independence (Picture: Jane Barlow)

So what many have been describing for some time as a civil war between supporters of Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond is decidedly out of character.

And, according to a new poll by SavantaComRes for The Scotsman, it may be starting to have an effect on support for independence.

The survey found support for a Yes vote in any future referendum had fallen by four percentage points since last month to 53 per cent with No on 47 per cent after the exclusion of those who did not express a preference. Support for independence also fell below 50 per cent for the first time since December, at 47 per cent, with the don’t knows included.

The pollsters also asked whether voters thought the SNP was united and while 42 per cent said they thought they were, that was down from 50 per cent in January.

This then provides a possible explanation for the drop in support for independence. If people do not trust one faction or the other, they may feel that going ahead with the difficult process of creating a new nation is better left to sometime in the future. With a degree of mudslinging on both sides, it’s inevitable that some of it will stick.

Of course, Scotland’s unionists are already divided between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. And, extrapolated into a forecast of the number of seats, the poll’s findings still make gloomy reading for them, suggesting the SNP would get 71 MSPs and a comfortable majority, with the Conservatives on 24, Labour 19, the pro-independence Greens on 11, and the Liberal Democrats on four.

The upcoming Scottish Parliament election will doubtless be won by the SNP and the best the unionist parties can hope for is to deny them a pro-independence majority.

But while the SNP’s current divisions provide something of a gift to the unionist camp, it still remains on course for a victory that would begin an almighty battle between Holyrood and Westminster over a second independence referendum.

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