Chan eil an t-slighe gu neo-eisimeileachd idir soilleir a-nis

Tha cunntas bheachd a thàinig a-mach an t-seachdain-sa a’ sealltainn, a dh’aindeoin nan duilgheadas a tha aig a’ phrìomh phàrtaidh ann an Alba, nach eil mòran atharrachaidh air a thighinn air a’ chuspair a tha a’ dearbhadh barrachd na càil eile nuair a thig e gu poileataigs na h-Alba – ‘s e sin, neo-eisimeileachd.

Tha a h-uile coltas gur e Keir Starmer agus a' phàrtaidh Làbarach a bhios a' riaghladh ann a Westminster. (Dealbh: Dan Charity/WPA pool/Getty Images)

[English-language version below]

Tha e furasta gu leòr a thuigsinn carson. Tha mòran dhe na tha a' cur taic ri Alba a' dol sìos slighe ùr dhi fhèin air a dhèanamh soilleir iad fhèin nach ann mu dheidhinn aon phàrtaidh no aon bhuidheann a tha seo idir.

Bidh iad dhen bheachd a-rèist, às dèidh a’ chunntais bheachd a tha seo a chaidh a dhèanamh leis a’ chompanaidh rannsachaidh Survation, g’ eil neo-eisimeileachdb fhathast beò, gun gabh a thoirt gu buil fhathast – ged ‘s dòcha nach ann ann an aithghearrachd, rud a tha cuid aca a’ tuigse glè mhath.

‘S e an duilgheadas, feuchainn ri dearbhadh dè an t-slighe as urrainnear a ghabhail airson a’ cheann-uidhe sin a ruigsinn. Chan e dìreach airson reifreann eile a chumail, ach air bunait air an gabh a bhuannachadh gu cinnteach, ‘s dòcha suas gu 60% – rud a tha an fheadhainn as ciallaiche a’ faicinn cudromach ma tha Alba gu bhith soirbheachail sna bliadhnachan às a dhèidh.

A-measg iomadach leasan eile, sin aon rud a sheall Brexit dhuinn – chan eil sgaradh idir na bhunait airson gluasad air adhart.

Ged a tha na thachair leis an SNP a’ sealltainn cho cunnartach ‘s a tha e a’ coimhead ro fhada air thoiseach (cò a bha an dùil ris na thachair), tha a h-uile coltas ma leanas cùisean mar a tha, gu bheil cnapan-starraidh poileataigeach gu math mòr ma choinneamh neo-eisimeileachd – fiù ‘s mus tig thu gu argamaidean mu dheidhinn airgid, malairt is crìochan.

‘S a’ chiad àite, chan eil na Làbaraich a’ dol a dh’aontachadh ri reifreann – gur bith dè a’ bhrunndalaich faoin a tha air Stephen Flynn – agus san dàrna àite, mas e agus gum bi na Làbaraich anns an Riaghaltas ann an Westminster (rud a tha dualtach, dh’fheumar a ràdh), cuiridh e às do fear dhe na nithean as cumhachdaiche a th’ aig neo-eisimeileachd; a bhith a’ càineadh nan Tòraidhean, rud a tha air a bhith gu math èifeachdach na dhòigh fhèin.

Tha fhios gun can cuid nach eil anns na Làbarach ach Tòraidhean ann an aodach eile (Tòraidhean le tàidh dhearg, mar a thuirt Flynn) ach chan e an aon rud idir a tha ann an Keir Starmer agus a leithid Emily Thornberry ‘s a bha ann am Boris Johnson is Priti Patel.

Rud eile a tha an cunntas bheachd an t-seachdain-sa a’ sealltainn, ‘s e rud a bha cuid a tha taiceil dha neo-eisimeileachd air a bhith ag ràdh bho chionn greis – buannachdail ‘s gun robh Nicola Sturgeon a thaobh taghaidhean a bhuannachadh ann an Alba, bha i a’ cur a’ cheart uimhir a dhaoine dheth. Bho dh’fhalbh i, ‘s ann a tha taic airson neo-eisimeileachd air a dhol an àirde aon phuing gu 48%.

An dìleab a tha i air fhàgail, ged-thà, ‘s e pàrtaidh a bu chòir iomairt airson neo-eisimeileachd a stiùireadh ach a tha a-nis ann am fìor staing le cunnartan bho gach taobh – bho thaobh a-staigh a’ phàrtaidh fhèin, bho shàrachadh tro bhith a’ riaghladh ro fhada agus bho mhòr-shluaigh a tha a' fàs seach searbh sgìth do chùisean a' dol ceàrr, bho foghlam gu seirbheis na slàinte gu aiseagan. Agus ’s e sin as coireach gu bheil an t-slighe a dh’ionnsaigh neo-eisimeileachd nas cugallaiche agus nas mì-chìnntiche na tha e air a bhith o chionn greis mhath.

English-language version:

The latest test of Scottish opinion on politics shows that despite the “omnishambles” surrounding the dominant party, attitudes towards the issue that overrides almost everything else, and is the very reason for the party’s existence – independence – show few signs of a major shift.

The reason for this is understandable. Many of its own core supporters, indeed, are quick to point out that the constitutional reform they espouse is not about any single party or entity, so the latest poll by Survation will provide them with a sense of optimism that the dream remains alive; that independence is still within reach, if not quite in the here and now.

The problem, however, is in trying to discern a tangible route to achieve that goal – not just to secure a referendum, but to secure one on terms which will result in up to 60 per cent of the Scottish public voting in favour, a scenario which the more enlightened and sensible elements of the movement accept is necessary for the best chances of post-independence success. Among many others, that is at least one lesson that the Brexit plebiscite should teach us; that a divided country is decidedly dodgy grounds on which to secure constitutional upheaval.

While recent events surrounding the SNP highlight just how dangerous a game predictions can be, a quick summation of the current position concludes that the route towards independence is littered with significant political obstacles – even before you get to the point of arguing about currency, borders and trade.

Firstly, there is as much chance of Labour accepting demands for a referendum as there is of Stephen Flynn showing humility, and, secondly, if, as likely, Labour secures a majority for Westminster (even governing as a minority), it will rob the independence movement of one its key assets – the demonisation of Tory rule. Simplistic as it is, it has been highly effective in sowing discord and played perfectly with a certain mindset.

There will, of course, be a concerted effort to paint Labour as Tory-lite (“Tories with a red tie,” as Flynn dismissed them), but Keir Starmer and the likes of Emily Thornberry are no Boris Johnson and Priti Patel. Demonisation of south of the Border will be a far harder sell in the wake of a Labour success, particularly given the public’s penchant to give any new regime the benefit of the doubt, at least initially.

What the Survation poll published this week also shows is what many in the independence movement have suspected all along – that while Nicola Sturgeon may have been key to winning elections in Scotland, she was just as much of a hindrance to the wider independence movement. Since her high-profile departure, support for independence has actually gone up one point to 48 per cent, according to Survation.

What she has bequeathed, however, is a party leading the independence movement but in complete turmoil, facing an existential threat and danger at every turn – from within their own ranks, from the deep malaise that comes with being in government for too long, and the well of public goodwill being well and truly drained.

And that, more than anything, makes the path to independence more murky than it’s been for some time.