Tha ceannach ro dhaor air sgaradh is aimhreit, le Murray MacLeòid

Diluain bidh fios nas fheàrr againn dè tha fa-near dhan SNP ach às bith cò a thaghas ballrachd a’ phàrtaidh mar cheannard, tha e follaiseach g’ eil crathadh mòr a’ tighinn.

[English-language version below]

Cho fad ’s tha an SNP air a bhith ann, tha iad air a bhith aig cridhe iomairt air neo-eisimeileachd, a’ gluasad bho iomall phoilitigs gu bhith gu mòr a’ riaghladh anns an 21mh linn.

Tha cuid a-nis a’ smaoineachadh gun tèid am pàrtaidh à bith. Ach, ged a bheir e greis mhath na leòntan a thàinig am follais tro iomairt a’ cheannardais a shlànachadh, chan eil sin idir a’ ciallachadh deireadh an rathaid. Tha iad air a bhith ro chumhachdach airson ro fhada gus leigeil dhan sin tachairt.

Ach, dìreach mar a thachair le na Tòraidhean agus na Làbaraich, tha feum air ùrachadh agus slighe eile air adhart a chruthachadh. ’S tha sin mu dheidhinn tòrr a bharrachd na cò a choisicheas a-steach do Thaigh Bhòid ann an Dùn Èideann.

Chan eil mar a bha a’ dol a dh’obrachadh. Chan e a-mhàin nach obraich e a-thaobh Alba a riaghladh, ach chan obraich e a bharrachd airson an argamaid mu thimcheall neo-eisimeileachd.

A’ dh’aindeoin na thuirt an triùir a tha a’ seasamh airson a’ cheannardais gus a’ bhallrachd aca fhèin a shàsachadh, chan eil neo-eisimeileachd dol a thachairt a’ chiad ghreis, agus le sin tha feum air coimhead nas fhaide air adhart.

Tha dà roghainn air a thighinn am bàrr. Tha aon ag amas air an luchd-bhòtaidh as òige; a bhith libearalach air cùisean mar LGBTQ is an àrainneachd.

Bidh fios Diluain cò a gheibh dreuchd a' cheannard

Faodaidh sinne slighe Humza a thoirt air. Tha an dòigh smaoineachaidh seo a’ gabhail dheth gur e sin a bhuannaicheas aig a’ cheann thall bhon gur e òigridh an là an-diugh pàrantan an là a-màireach.

Ach, tha dà rud ceàrr air a sin. Sa chiad àite tha prìomhachasan dhaoine ag atharrachadh mar as sine a dh’fhàsas iad agus, mar a tha na cunntasan bheachd air aithneachadh gnè air sealltainn, chan ann mar sin a tha a’ mhòr chuid de bheachd-smuain na h-Alba, co-dhiù an-dràsta.

Tha slighe eile fosgailte cuideachd; slighe Cheit Fhoirbheis. Tha sin mu dheidhinn a bhith a’ ruighinn a-mach gu iadsan a tha teagmhach mu neo-eisimeileachd le bhith riaghladh gu socair, èifeachdach, a’ seachnadh sgaraidhean, agus a bhith toirt seachad barrachd mìneachadh air cò ris a dh’fhaodadh Alba a bhith coltach às dèidh neo-eisimeileachd.

Chan eil sin gun a dhuilgheadasan fhèin – cha chòrd e idir riutha-san a tha ga iarraidh an rud sa bhad, an fheadhainn a bhios a’ smèideadh na flagaichean air na sràidean – ach ’s cinnteach gur e an t-slighe as dualtaiche a bhith soirbheachail agus a dh’fhàgas an dìleab as fheàrr mas e agus gun tachair neo-eisimeileachd idir.

’S beag m’ fhios càite a bheil Ash Regan le “na tomhasan-teas air neo-eisimeileachd” agus na comataidhean air a h-uile cuspair am measg sin.

Ach, tha cuideachd rud eile ann: dè bhuaidh a bhios aig seo air an iomairt air neo-eisimeileachd san fharsaingeachd.

Tha e follaiseach gur bith cò gheibh dreuchd a’ cheannaird tha sgaradh gu bhith ann, agus cha bheag e.

Dè an uair sin ma thà? Tha fios gum bi cuid de na buill a’ coimhead ri agus a’ beachdachadh air gluasad gu na h-Uainich no Alba a rèir ’s cò a bhuannaicheas, no is dòcha fiù ’s dìreach am pàrtaidh fhàgail.

Gur bith, cha bhi cùisean mar a bha.

Tha ceannach ro dhaor air sgaradh is aimhreit.

English-language version:

On Monday we will know a bit more about the future direction of the SNP and whatever choice the membership bestows on the country in terms of a new leader it is clear that the party itself faces fundamental change.

For as long as the SNP has been in existence it has been synonymous with the independence campaign, moving from the margins of politics to being the dominant force in 21st-century Scotland.

There are those who now predict oblivion in the wake of Sturgeon's resignation. But, while the scars of a bruising and chaotic leadership campaign will take some time to heal, there is no reason to suppose disintegration. The party has been too dominant for too long to allow that to happen.

But just like the Tories and Labour before, it faces an existential crisis, a battle for its very soul, which is about far more than who will occupy Bute House, which most likely will be either Kate Forbes or Humza Yousaf.

The SNP status quo is not an option. It’s not just that continuity won’t cut it in terms of governing Scotland, it won’t cut it in terms of winning the argument for independence either. Despite the candidates’ assertions to placate the membership base, the only realistic independence strategy available is one that looks more to the long-term.

One idea is to embrace “progressive” and liberal Scotland, hoping that by focussing on issues such as gender recognition and LGBTQ, along with a trenchant approach to environmental issues, it will win the day. Let’s call it the Yousaf way. It supposes that as these issues feature highly among the priorities of young voters, it will eventually win through by dint of natural progression as they are the parents of tomorrow.

There are two basic flaws in that. The first is that people’s priorities change as they get older and the second is that, as the polling on gender recognition shows, there is some way to go before it becomes the prevailing thinking of the wider Scottish public.

The competing strategy, as personified by Kate Forbes, is to reach out to the ‘independence unpersuaded’ by running a competent administration, avoiding rancour and providing far more detail on what a post-independent Scotland will look like. That’s certainly not without its flaws – not least that it will stick in the craw of the rabble-rousing and flag-waving element – but it surely represents the best chance of success and, crucially, the best chance of Scotland being successful and pulling together should independence ever be achieved. It’s anyone’s guess as to where Ash Regan’s “independence thermometer” lies in all that.

Then there are the implications for the wider independence movement. It’s clear that whoever becomes the new leader, the SNP is deeply split and it seems unlikely, given the ideological gulf between the opposing sides, a coming together in any workable manner will be achievable. So, what then? Clearly, there is the possibility of an exodus to the Greens or Alba depending on the result, or just some becoming so scunnered with all the in-fighting that they take a step back from the cause.

Whatever change is afoot, and the only real lesson to be drawn is that a strategy of division only leaves a lasting legacy of bitterness.