Icelandic eruptions could last for a year and 'second volcano could follow'

A LEADING Scottish vulcanologist has warned that the eruptions from the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull could last for up to a year.

And, even more ominously, the eruptions of the comparatively small volcano have historically been linked to massive eruptions by the nearby volcano Katla, one of Iceland's two feared "Angry Sisters".

Deposits from the ash cloud formed by Katla when it erupted spectacularly in 1755 can still be found in peat bogs in Shetland and other parts of northern Europe.

John Stevenson, a Scottish vulcanologist based at Manchester University, has spent years studying the volcanoes in Iceland.

He explained that the huge plume of volcanic ash which has brought chaos to the skies over Europe had been caused by magma mixing with the ice from a 200-metre thick glacier inside the crater.

"When this volcano erupted a couple of weeks ago, the lava was just coming out of the side and making lava floes," Mr Stevenson said.

"But what is different this time is that the eruptions are in the middle crater of the volcano and the crater there is filled with a glacier which is 200 metres thick.

"That means that when the magma – the hot liquid rock – comes out, it melts the ice and then the meltwater turns to steam. Then that steam expands explosively which then breaks the magma up into the fine ash particles we find in the cloud.

"The lava is also coming out ten times faster than the last eruption."

He explained that there were essentially two possible scenarios facing Eyjafjallajoekull.

"The best case scenario is that the eruptions fizzle out now and the ash clears in a couple of days.

"But in the worst case scenario we could be facing sporadic disruption to flights for a year. The last time this volcano erupted the eruptions lasted from December 1821 until January 1823. And that could happen again."

However, even if the volcano does continue to erupt it does not necessarily mean that air traffic would be as badly affected as in recent days.

The current eruption has produced an unprecedented problem because winds are blowing ash towards Europe and an area of high pressure, and therefore low winds, means the particles are not dissipating quickly.

But Mr Stevenson stressed: "I don't really think it will carry on erupting for a whole year but you might find, over that year, there might be a month of activity and another ash cloud and flights might be affected again."