Gaddafi weakening but not enough to risk an uprising

The members of what they said was a burgeoning underground opposition network in the capital said Gaddafi was keeping control of the city through informants, mass arrests and killings.

"No single event will bring down the regime here in Tripoli," said one activist who goes by the name of Niz.

"And it will take time," he added, saying more Nato bombing, a push by Libyan rebels outside the city and better co-ordination of the opposition inside the capital would probably be needed.

Yet Niz and others also spoke of a system of repression that was showing signs of strain, with a shortage of places to hold detainees, interrogators who do not know what questions to ask and people arrested and then released apparently at random.

That foreign journalists staying at a tightly-monitored hotel were able to slip away from government minders to meet people who said they represented active opposition cells was itself a sign of disarray in the decades-old security system.

Four activists from two different opposition movements gave an account of what they thought it would take for Gaddafi's grip on his Tripoli stronghold to be broken.

An uprising in Tripoli is seen by some Nato member states as the best bet for toppling the Libyan ruler after months of coalition air strikes and rebel attacks outside the capital, failed to produce a decisive outcome.

Niz said outsiders, and the eastern rebels, should be patient if they were were waiting for Tripoli to rise up: "Four months is a long time for those being shelled," he said of those under siege in Misrata and elsewhere.

He added: "It's a long time for those being raped or tortured. But, objectively, it's not a long time when you consider the regime has been in power for 42 years."

Niz has been in regular contact with foreign media, speaking for what he calls the Free Generation Movement – predominantly secular, young and liberal in outlook.

Quite how many people Niz speaks for is unclear. But each such group appears to have contacts with many others, suggesting loose, cellular pattern of opposition action.

The activists said an uprising in the capital would require further weakening of Gaddafi's rule by the Nato bombing campaign, significant progress toward the capital by rebels – and a stronger opposition network within the city.

Building up that network has been made vastly more difficult by the government's decision to shut down internet and text messaging services.

"We're having to do things the old-fashioned way," said one of the activists, who used the name Fatima. "That takes time."

Her group, going by the name of the February 17 Young Women's Coalition of Tripoli – a reference to the date of the first big street protests – also appears tiny, but also representative of widespread anti-Gaddafi sentiment.

At the meeting, the activists described heavy security across the city, especially at night with numerous checkpoints that shift locations from day to day.

People can be held for anything from hours to days, or even weeks and some have been killed, the activists said. "There are mass arrests every day. There are killings every day," said Niz.

They said some people appeared to have been arrested solely on the grounds of being originally from rebel towns, such as Misrata or Zlitan. At other times, arrests seemed to be based on people's family names.