A dynasty in transition will look to hold on to the reins of power

KIM Jong-Un inherits from his father Kim Jong-Il a North Korea radically transformed from that led by his grandfather, Kim Il-Sung, from a command Communist economy to a market economy, and from a politics of civilian control to a dictatorship of the military.

In today’s North Korea, state and society are built around a market economy in which the entire population is involved as buyers, sellers and barterers. For those still asking when North Korea is going to collapse, the right answer is that North Korea did collapse – economically – nearly 20 years ago. The state no longer provides food other than to key workers like the military, miners and power station operatives – and even then the ration is of minimal size and quality, and impossible to live on.

To survive, literally, all must engage with the market – none more so than the hundreds of thousands of officials and white collar workers like teachers, doctors, engineers, party and security bureaucrats.

North Korea is a highly urbanised country and most of these officials have little or no access to land to grow their own food. All are dependent on the health of the markets, which is why the central government has never been able to close down market trading.

When the central government periodically tries to clamp down on market activity, it is its officials at local level who keep the markets alive.

In Kim Il-Sung’s day, the military was kept out of domestic politics, as in many Communist countries. Today in North Korea, the military has a primary role in domestic politics through the National Defence Commission.

Kim Jong-Un was recently appointed to the commission, as was Kim Jong-Il’s powerful brother-in-law, Chang Song Taek, who is much more likely to be taking a leading role in North Korea’s government than the inexperienced third son of Kim Jong-Il.

Kim Jong-Un’s succession is useful for the military, as all the nation’s domestic propaganda is built around the Kim family.

The succession process is, however, built around the continuity of military control of North Korea where the absolute priority is regime survival.

The external environment from the North Korean perspective remains threatening, with the downfall of Arab friends like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar al-Gaddafi in Libya causing the current regime as much fear and anxiety as the fall of Communist regimes throughout Eastern Europe caused Kim Il-Sung in the 1990s.

Continuity of domestic and foreign politics look very much like the order of the day in the short term as the ruling elites circle in the wagons against the threat of foreign intervention emboldened by any potential signs of weakness caused by the death of Kim Jong-Il.

• Hazel Smith is professor of resilience and security at Cranfield University, Bedfordshire.