Water shortages and rising seas forecast to sweep UK by 2100

A QUARTER of the UK population could suffer more water shortages by the end of the century without urgent action to tackle climate change, the Met Office has warned.

Forecasters said that while “water stress” was most likely to affect south-east England, Scotland would not be immune from changing weather patterns, with predictions that an extra 160,000 people across the UK could be put at risk of coastal flooding due to rising sea levels.

The report, which was commissioned by the UK government, found that 24 per cent of the population in 2100 – about 18 million people – could face increased pressure on their water supplies.

The analysis, which used 21 climate models to come up with a range of projected impacts for countries across the globe, found that up to 49 million more people worldwide would be at risk of coastal flooding by 2100.

Environmentalists said the report hinted at the potentially “devastating” effect climate change would have on food and water security, but sceptics urged caution about making predictions too far in the future.

The latest warning on the impacts of climate change, launched during international talks on tackling global warming in Durban, South Africa, comes in the wake of one of the driest 12 months on record for some parts of Britain.

The south and south-east of England are already facing pressure on water resources, and those regions are likely to see an increase in the frequency of droughts and water scarcity, the Met Office Hadley Centre report said. But almost all of the agricultural land farmed in the UK will become more suitable for growing crops, largely as a result of decreasing frosts and cold nights as the country warms.

The study said the UK was already getting warmer as a result of climate change, experiencing 35 more unseasonably warm days a year in this decade than in the 1960s. The Met Office predicts temperatures could rise by 3C above the 1960-1990 average of 8.3C in the south and by 2.5C in the north of the UK without global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Dave Britton, a spokesman for the Met Office, said: “It’s difficult to say exactly where in the UK we may see changes in water stress because rainfall patterns are quite uncertain. It’s more of an issue for south-east England, but that’s not to say Scotland is immune. Around a quarter of the UK will see an increase in water stress and we may see an increase in the number of people at risk of coastal flooding.”

The analysis found that limiting global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels would substantially reduce a number of the expected impacts on countries.

Keith Allott, head of climate change at green group WWF UK, said: “It is clear that the UK can expect significant disruption to its water, transport and other critical infrastructure.”

But Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation think tank, which contests much of the science on climate change, said: “It’s very difficult to make predictions 100 years into the future. We don’t even know how much warming will occur over that time.”

Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne yesterday said it was “all to play for” in the UN climate talks in South Africa, with indications from China that they may be “flexible” on efforts to make progress on a new global deal.

Europe wants the current round of negotiations in Durban to agree a roadmap to a new global agreement for all major economies to cut their emissions.

But major polluters including China, the US and India have expressed opposition to the EU bid to get countries to agree to negotiate a legally binding deal by 2015 and have it start taking effect by 2020.