Brexit analysis: Why Boris Johnson needs an election

Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Picture: Danny Lawson/PA Wire

And it’s as difficult to work out what happens next as it is to find a precedent for what happened yesterday.

Over the next two days, MPs will seek to humiliate the government further, by refusing to grant a recess for the Conservative Party conference and forcing the publication of the legal advice on prorogation. It’s worth remembering that if the government loses those votes, it’s because it threw 21 of its own MPs out of the Conservative Party.

Beyond that, the key question is when the parliamentary blockage that brought us to this point will be cleared – and the answer remains uncertain.

The SNP and Lib Dems say they want a vote of confidence now, but Labour are holding out until legislation forcing a delay to Brexit is implemented, after a trigger date of 19 October. It could wait even longer if there’s a feeling that Boris Johnson could renege on a Brexit delay ahead of the current 31 October deadline.

Johnson needs an election – it’s the only way out of the current nightmare. But his plan was to hold one before his Halloween “do or die” commitment to have taken the UK out of the EU.

By law, it’s now too late for that to happen.

The Tories – particularly Johnson’s controversial top adviser Dominic Cummings – are desperate for a “people versus Parliament” campaign all about how opposition parties blocked Brexit.

The Supreme Court’s ruling conveniently overshadowed Labour’s own shambles the day before over its stance in a second EU referendum campaign.

But while the Tories are ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s party now, polling also shows that in a snap election after 31 October, all bets are off, with no one expected to get about the 30 per cent threshold.

Whatever happens next, there is no script: this is truly a one off.