Turkish PM set for game-changing victory

When Recep Tayyip Erdogan sold rolls as a boy on the streets of Istanbul, Turkey was still caught in a cycle of army coups d'état. It languished on the fringes of Europe. Pious Turks were the underdogs of society.

As Mr Erdogan moves towards his second decade as prime minister, Turkey could not look more different.

It has one of the world's fastest growing economies, is a candidate for European Union membership and regional heavyweight, and religious Turks have displaced the secularist elite at the top.

An autocrat and a dangerous Islamist to foes, a hero and a man of the people to his followers, Mr Erdogan has transformed this Muslim democracy since his AK Party swept to power in 2002, on a scale unseen since Kemal Ataturk founded the Turkish republic in 1923 from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire.

Opinion polls show Mr Erdogan, 57, will win a third term of single-party rule on elections this Sunday.

While the only uncertainty is his margin of victory, the outcome will determine the future of a complex country of 74 million people.

Mr Erdogan has said that if his party wins he will rewrite Turkey's constitution, drafted after a coup in 1980, and there is speculation his next step could be to elevate himself to the presidency with greater powers.

A hot-tempered but charismatic politician, Mr Erdogan has taken risks as he has challenged the secularist military and the judiciary, while power has shifted from the westernised, urban elites to a new class of observant Muslims from the heartland.

Fears by secularists that AK, which evolved from banned Islamist movements, would turn Turkey into Iran have not materialised and investors have rewarded Mr Erdogan's pragmatism. But despite this success story there are concerns about Turkey's future.

Critics accuse Mr Erdogan of showing authoritarian tendencies and say he has too much power. Some fret a two-thirds AK majority would allow Mr Erdogan to pass unilateral constitutional changes and give free rein to a man known to dislike dissent and used to having his way.

If elected, Mr Erdogan would not be allowed to run for a fourth term. But campaign materials intimate that he plans to remain on the political scene; in posters and brochures he strikes an unsmiling, paternal pose reminiscent of the great Ataturk, and uses the slogan "Objective 2023" - the 100th anniversary of Turkey's foundation.The son of a ship's captain from the Black Sea, Mr Erdogan migrated as a child to Istanbul, where he sold rolls and lemonade to pay for religious school.

Biographers say his combative and populist traits can be traced to Kasimpasa, an old Istanbul neighbourhood housing rural migrants and shopkeepers, where men like to swagger.

"He makes us feel proud," said Adnan Savas, 45, who runs a kebab shop. "You can come from Kasimpasa and become a prime minister so he encourages our children to work hard. You can be a good Muslim, preserve your values, and be very successful."

Although he is a divisive figure, even Mr Erdogan's diehard enemies would contend he is force to be reckoned with.

Microphone in hand and pacing the stage at rallies of enthusiastic supporters, Mr Erdogan knows how to work a crowd.

He quotes local religious philosophers, slams his enemies as "dark forces" resisting change, lists his government's achievements and adorns his speeches with streetwise vernacular the secular elite in Ankara disdains.

"He is a political animal, but the drawback is that he has become the nation's unique decision maker," said Cengiz Aktar, professor at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University.