Triple-whammy threat to Scotland’s public services

THE crisis in Scotland’s public services has been exposed by new documents warning that hospitals, schools and all public services are facing a multi-million pound shortfall caused by spending cuts, the ageing population and funding government “freebies”.

A series of submissions published by Holyrood’s finance committee shows that some senior public sector chiefs believe SNP ministers need to ration popular policies such as free personal care and free travel. Calculations by social work chiefs say that the cost of paying for elderly care is set to double over the coming 20 years. There are also new official estimates from the Scottish Government which show that up to £600 million extra will be required by the NHS and social care in 2015 compared to 2010 because of extra demand.

Causes include a more elderly population, record numbers of children in care and an increase in people with learning disabilities who require support. Ministers in Edinburgh have rolled out plans to try to ease pressure on the NHS and social services, but the response from councils and NHS bodies suggests the efforts are not sufficient.

The documents warn that, if ministers decide to keep the generous entitlements, taxes on households in Scotland will have to rise or other services will have to be cut.

However, SNP ministers last night said the answer was to make Scotland an independent country, saying it was “the only alternative” left to UK government cuts.

The papers have been submitted to Holyrood’s finance committee as part of an inquiry it is holding into the impact of demographic change on Scottish public services. Previous studies have shown that there will be a 26 per cent increase in the numbers of pensioners between 2010 and 2035.

The impact is laid out in stark terms. A submission by the Association of Directors of Social Work (ADSW) declares: “Social care spending on older people would have to double between 2010 and 2035 on current service models and rates of provision.”

It also provides estimates by the Scottish Government which suggest that, if people’s health does not improve, spending on the NHS and social care will go up, in today’s money, from £11bn in 2010 to £12.3bn in 2020 and then to £14.1bn in 2030.

Another paper from the influential local government body “Improvement Scotland” warns that a “prudent assumption would be for cash cuts of at least £1bn in Scotland” as a consequence of UK government spending reductions in two years’ time.

It recommends that the SNP government should consider restricting access to free personal care and free public transport for senior citizens in a bid to save £500m a year.

ADSW president Peter MacLeod said last night: “Free personal care is quite correctly described as a flagship policy. But there is a question of affordability.”

However, a Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “We remain firmly committed to the flagship policies which are making Scotland a fairer and healthier society.”