Tories 'will have only one new MP in Scotland next year'

Scottish voters will defy the UK-wide trend at the election according to in-depth analysis by independent political website PoliticsHome, The Scotsman can reveal today.

The study of key marginals across the UK shows that, while the Tories are expected to win with a majority of 70 seats at Westminster, in Scotland they would take only one seat from Labour. This would leave Scotland with just two Conservative MPs.

Of the 19 key Scottish marginals, Labour is predicted to lose only four – two to the SNP, and one each to the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.

The results come just a day after The Scotsman revealed the Conservatives had a minimum target of four Scottish seats at Westminster after the next election, building to eight in 2014.

It appears the Tories' efforts to claim the seat of Chancellor Alistair Darling by sending big-hitters into his Edinburgh South West constituency may come to nothing.

Their high hopes for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Edinburgh South and Angus would also be dashed.

The Tory onslaught across the UK stops at Scotland, with the party set to gain only Dumfries and Galloway, a seat they lost in 2005, out of the 19 marginal seats. However, a Scottish Conservative spokesman said: "I don't know where PoliticsHome is getting its information from, but if you look at the last European elections, which was the last real poll, we would have won at least six seats."

Many believe the SNP in Holyrood will be able to capitalise on a Conservative government in Westminster with little support in Scotland and gain support for an independence referendum.

Although Conservative leader David Cameron has said he will make UK ministers answerable to MSPs at Holyrood, many believe this will not be enough.

A Scottish Labour spokesman said: "We know that David Cameron is less popular in Scotland than even Margaret Thatcher was in the 1980s.

"The Tories' standing in the opinion polls in Scotland is lower than the Tory vote in the 1980s elections. We know the next election will be a choice between two people for Prime Minister. One is Gordon Brown and one is David Cameron, and people in Scotland are overwhelmingly rejecting David Cameron."

The poll also revealed the Nationalists are less popular than a year ago, with their swing against Labour down from 14.5 per cent to 9.3 per cent, gaining just two seats – Dundee West and Ochil and South Perthshire.

This would leave them well short of the target of 20 set by First Minister Alex Salmond in the hope this would make the party big enough to hold the balance of power in parliament.

The SNP's Westminster campaign manager Stewart Hosie said: "

This survey shows that the general election in Scotland is a two-horse race between Labour and the SNP."

The Liberal Democrats are at 17 per cent, up three points on a year ago, but six points below their vote in 2005. However the party would still gain a seat, Edinburgh South.

The PoliticsHome survey of 33,610 voters in 238 marginal seats in the UK would give the Tories 360 seats, Labour 199 and the Liberal Democrats 55.

However, the poll shows that, across the UK, the Tories have halved their notional majority from the same time last year. They are now on course to win a 70-seat majority, in contrast to 146 seats when the survey was conducted in 2008.

The Lib Dems across the UK are also more popular than a year ago, but they are still expected to have fewer seats after the general election; 55 against their current 63.

Like Mr Darling, Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy is on course to keep his seat, East Renfrewshire. By contrast, last year's survey, conducted at the same time, just before the party conferences began, showed Mr Murphy losing his seat.

PoliticsHome interviewed a total of 33,610 people (3,109 of them in Scotland) online between 11 and 21 September. The data was weighted to match the demographic make-up of the constituencies.