£2 road tolls ‘will cut cars by 80,000’

CHARGING motorists £2 to drive into Edinburgh would lead to 80,000 fewer vehicles using the city’s roads each day, leading analysts predicted today.

The figure - representing about a sixth of the traffic on the Capital’s roads - has been arrived at using sophisticated computer modelling.

The predicted results are so dramatic that council transport leaders did not at first believe them and insisted on having them audited.

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They said today it showed the main purpose of road tolls was to cut congestion and pollution - with cash for transport improvements coming second.

But the AA again questioned whether there would be enough public transport to allow drivers to leave their cars at home.

The prediction of a 16.5 per cent fall in traffic levels was unveiled today as the authority launches a major consultation exercise on the idea of a 2-a-day toll to enter the city.

Leading transport consultants MVA was taken on to estimate how many people would decide not to drive into the Capital if tolls were in place. The firm examined two scenarios: firstly, if motorists had to pay tolls for entering the city centre; and secondly, if they had to pay for crossing either of two toll rings, one around the centre and one at the city bypass.

The company fed a mass of statistics about driving habits and public transport demand into a complex computer program to produce predictions based on 2001 traffic levels.

MVA concluded that with two cordons, a 2 charge and tolls applying 7am to 7pm Monday to Friday, there would be about 85,000 fewer journeys per day.

The only significant impact would be in the city centre, where there would be a 46,000 car drop, and congested west Edinburgh, where there would be a 39,000 fall. That represents a fall in congestion of 18 per cent in the centre and 15 per cent in the west.

Even with one cordon, there would be 59,000 fewer journeys, although all would be in the city centre, with west Edinburgh seeing a small increase. Without tolls - which are likely to be introduced in 2006 if the city presses ahead with the plan - traffic levels are expected to rise. The predicted fall in traffic in the west under the two-cordon model was so high the authority had it checked. The result was the same.

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Transport leader Andrew Burns said: "The figure absolutely stunned us .

"This is the argument we have to make to the Scottish Executive. They’re not interested in revenue from charging. What they need is to meet congestion reduction targets.

"This would make a marked difference to the free flow of traffic in the city centre and the west and improve a whole host of statistics for retail, commerce and tourism."

The council has stated that the only way to fund a 1.5 billion transport programme, including a city-wide tram network, is by a combination of public cash, private finance and tolls.

But Councillor Burns said: "The primary reason for congestion charging is to reduce congestion. It’s absolutely not the case that this is primarily revenue driven, or politically motivated."

Dr Richard Dixon, head of research at Friends of the Earth Scotland, said: "Edinburgh faces a polluted and congested future unless we get serious about reducing car traffic.

"Today’s proposals are the city’s best bet for a cleaner, healthier future, where we reduce air pollution and climate change emissions, and create an urban environment which is good for residents, tourists and businesses.

"When congestion charging is introduced in London early next year, other cities will begin to see the benefits. Luckily, we in Edinburgh are ahead of the game and Scotland’s other cities will be running to catch up ."

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But Neil Greig, head of policy for the AA in Scotland, said: "This obviously begs the question where does the traffic go? It has to use public transport. But do motorists believe Edinburgh will produce a public transport system good enough to soak up that percentage of current traffic in a way which doesn’t affect people’s quality of life?"

Official consultation on the idea of tolls begins today.

As well as picking up freepost questionnaires in public facilities across south-east Scotland, members of the public can order them by phoning (08000) 322 323, e-mailing [email protected] or logging on to www.edinburgh.gov.uk/traffic . They can also write to Have Your Say, City of Edinburgh Council, PO Box 12470, 1 Cockburn Street, Edinburgh EH1 1ZF.

Fife Council has announced it will fund a study into the impact of Edinburgh’s road charging scheme on the Kingdom.

Mike Rumney, convener of Fife’s environment and development committee, said: "We have to know that this scheme is fair to the increasing numbers of people who commute to Edinburgh from Fife and contribute to the Edinburgh economy."