Writing on the wall for Scottish Tories despite Ruth’s return - Chris Green

The suggestion that Ruth Davidson will return to the front line of Scottish politics as interim Conservative leader has sent a ripple of excitement through the beleaguered party.

Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson MSP arrives at the Apex Hotel in Edinburgh, after it was confirmed Scottish Conservative MP Douglas Ross will stand for leadership

But the fact remains that the writing has been on the wall for the Tories in Scotland ever since that day in August last year when she unexpectedly announced she was quitting as leader.

Ms Davidson was the one politician capable of causing First Minister Nicola Sturgeon a major headache at next year’s Holyrood election. The SNP feared her – for good reason. Their main concern was that she appeared to appeal to voters outside the traditional Tory fold. People would say things like “I don’t vote Tory, but I might vote for her”.

After helping the party leapfrog Labour to become the official opposition at Holyrood, Davidson was winding up to a serious challenge in 2021. And then it all came to an end.

The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.

Before Mr Carlaw’s surprise resignation, opinion polls suggested the SNP was on course to win a majority next year – a remarkable situation considering it has been in power since 2007.

Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.

Two members of its communications team are also stepping down, following in the footsteps of Ms Davidson’s chief spinner, at a time when party messaging needs to be crystal clear. Douglas Ross, who has announced his bid for the leadership, is an effective operator who will give as good as he gets at First Minister’s Questions, should he be elected. But there is a question mark over his mass appeal.

At the moment, it is difficult to see any way that the Tories can stop the SNP in just over nine months’ time. And this of course raises important questions about the future of the Union.

Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.