Sun to shine on Scottish independence referendum

Whatever the result, the good news is that the sun is likely to shine on the day of the referendum - on those living in the west of Scotland, at least.
Glasgow, in particular, is expected to have a sunny Thursday. Picture: Lisa FergusonGlasgow, in particular, is expected to have a sunny Thursday. Picture: Lisa Ferguson
Glasgow, in particular, is expected to have a sunny Thursday. Picture: Lisa Ferguson

Those in Glasgow and the west are to be treated to a balmy summer’s day, with bright sunshine and little cloud, the Met Office has revealed. Easterners, however, are to face a slightly more mixed day, weather-wise - with scattered showers rife over Edinburgh and along the east coast, despite higher than average temperatures.

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Either way, experts have claimed that the long-held belief that the weather can affect voter turnout is unlikely to make a ha’peth of difference in the Scottish referendum.

A US study in the 1970s sparked the claim that right wingers are more likely to make the trek to the polling station in the rain than their left wing counterparts, prompting many Tories to carry out a rain dance on the day before a crucial vote.

But political experts believe that few people are likely to be deterred from voting in the independence referendum by a few spots of rain.

Stephen Fisher, Associate Professor in Political Sociology at Oxford University, said the referendum was of too much importance to people for them to be deterred by rain.

“What matters much more than weather is how important the election is to people,” he said. “In the case of the Scottish referendum, the answer is very important. Any research that shows that weather makes a difference at all tends to relate to local elections where people are easily put off going to vote. The data we have suggests that turnout for the referendum will be very high and people are not likely to be put off by weather.”

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, agreed.

“It won’t [affect turnout],” he said. “Given we’re not talking about snow, or anything really bad like that, the truth is it will not affect whether or not people vote.”

He added: “If we have fog or high winds, it could affect the count - as it will be difficult to get ballot boxes from the western Isles, but apart from that, the weather will have no effect.”

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