SNP accused of ‘twisting’ welfare cuts figures

The SNP government has been accused of misleading Scots with “statistical malpractice” over its claim that welfare cuts in ­Scotland have doubled to £4.5 billion.

Nicola Sturgeon branded it the “awful price of London rule” as she unveiled the figures, compiled by Scottish Government officials, at the SNP conference last month.

The Deputy First Minister told supporters this would mean the loss of 17,000 jobs to the Scottish economy – with every child under 16 losing out to the tune of £1,000. But writing in The Scotsman today, Alf Young, who was a member of the group which helped devise the financial arrangements for Scotland’s devolved government, warns that its officials are guilty of “double, triple, quadruple and quintuple” counting to reach this total which Ms Sturgeon used.

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The true extent of the cuts are no greater than £2.1bn, according to Mr Young, who has also sat on review groups for the SNP government. This is less than the initial £2.5bn estimates of welfare cuts north of the Border set out by the Department for Work and Pensions. Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “The SNP have resorted to the Gordon Brown style statistical trickery.

“By twisting the figures to suit their argument on the day, the SNP have tied themselves up in knots over their plans for an independent Scotland. It is for the SNP to set out whether they would raise taxes, cut public-sector spending elsewhere or borrow in order to reinstate the welfare budget in an independent Scotland.”

Nationalist ministers have been scathing in their criticism of the welfare changes and pledged to scrap the “bedroom tax” after independence. The £4.5bn claims by Ms Sturgeon were at the heart of her ­keynote address to SNP delegates in ­Inverness as she lambasted the proposed overhaul of the ­benefits system.

But Mr Young says in an article for The Scotsman today that Scottish officials have assembled all the decisions made by the coalition in its four Budgets and three autumn statements since coming to power, then assessed their overall impact on Scotland. This means that cuts which came into effect in the first of the Coalition’s planned five-year parliament are counted not once but five times. Cuts in year two four times and so on.

“It’s an old ploy, famously used by Gordon Brown to make the most of his first big spending splurge,” Mr Young states. “It’s statistical malpractice. Political opportunism designed to flatter your own case and mislead the unwary.”

The SNP government itself went on the offensive 18 months ago after reports that business rates increases would cost firms £849 million, after a report by think-tank the CPPR. This was branded “completely wrong because of double and treble counting” by a government spokeswoman who insisted the real figure was closer to £493m.

Professor David Bell, an economics expert with Stirling University, said figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show that spending on benefits “is expected to keep rising throughout the forecast” until 2018. “The pain is distributed unevenly, but the overall bill is increasing,” he says.

But a Scottish Government spokeswoman yesterday rejected the criticism.

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“We stand by this report,” she said. “The impact of the UK government’s benefit reforms will not be felt over one year, they will have a cumulative effect impacting on hard pressed families in Scotland for years to come.

“The Scottish Government report published last month shows that people in Scotland could be hit with a cut of £4.5bn in the five years to 2014-15 – £2bn more than the UK government originally said in evidence to the Scottish Parliament.”