Self perception may become the big issue for policymakers in rump UK, say analysts

THE UK would be “the big loser”, rather than Scotland, if the two countries go their separate ways, the French consul general in Scotland said yesterday.

Pierre-Alain Coffinier made the comment as he asked questions at The Scotsman Conference on Defence in an Independent Scotland, as the subject turned to the impact of secession on the rest of the United Kingdom.

Mr Coffinier said it would remain “important” for the world community to ensure that the UK stayed as a “global power”.

He said: “The big loser would be the rest of the UK.”

Experts on the panel said they agreed that Scottish independence would place fresh questions over the global power status of the rest of the United Kingdom.

However, they said the impact might be to damage the country’s “confidence”, rather than see it lose direct influence.

Professor Malcolm Chalmers, director of RUSI: “In material terms, Scottish independence would not make a great deal of difference to the UK defence budget or the UK aid budget and the UK is in no danger of falling out of the UN Security Council.

However, he added: “I can imagine a real loss of confidence… if there was a prolonged crisis and instability, then there would be a perception that the British state no longer has the energy and confidence to play a global role.”

Prof Chalmers also said that the break-up of the UK might be seen globally as further evidence of a “governance problem” in Europe as the eurozone crisis continues to place doubts over the viability of nations across the continent.

But, with its global influence lower than in the recent past, the break-up of Britain now would be seen as less serious to emerging nations in Asia and the US, the conference heard.

Eddie Barnes