Scottish independence: support falls 8% with different question

SUPPORT for independence drops by as much as 8 per cent if the SNP’s preferred question is dumped in favour of one backed by pro-Union campaigners, a major new poll has revealed.

The survey, conducted by YouGov, and published yesterday by Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft, showed that 41 per cent of people currently back independence if asked using Alex Salmond’s preferred question.

The First Minister has suggested asking people simply: “Do you agree Scotland should be an independent country?”

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But when pollsters asked another group of Scottish residents a different question – “Should Scotland become an independent country or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?” –the numbers backing independence fell to just 33 per cent.

Support for the status quo, meanwhile, rose from 59 per cent under Mr Salmond’s preferred question to 67 per cent under the second option.

The poll also tested a third question with people asked: “Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country.” The simple inclusion of the word “disagree” saw support for independence drop by two points to 39 per cent and support for the Union rise by two to 61 per cent, compared to the SNP’s preference.

SNP figures last night insisted their own wording was “fair and decisive”, pointing to backing last week from Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson who said she supported the SNP’s wording.

Meanwhile, leading referendum expert Dr Matt Qvortrup, writing in The Scotsman today, argues that it is not the question which will decide the outcome of the vote, but the way in which the campaign is fought ahead of the vote.

But the new poll will put a further question mark over their formulation preferred by the SNP. It comes after a former staff member at the Electoral Commission warned yesterday that the SNP’s option could “be seen as leading”, as it asks people to “agree” on the proposition.

Publishing his poll yesterday, Lord Ashcroft said: “Mr Salmond is not a pollster, he is a politician. Though he is committed to asking the Scottish people whether they want independence, he is equally determined to get the answer he wants. The question is too important to be asked in such a partisan way.”

On the substance of the referendum, the poll – which does not include the views of people who said “don’t know” – reflects previous surveys in recent weeks, indicating that, whichever question is asked, the SNP still has a mountain to climb to convince more than 50 per cent of people to back independence. The challenge for the SNP applies particularly to women, the poll shows. Using the SNP’s preferred wording, while 46 per cent of men back secession, that falls to just 35 per cent for women.

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Support is also lower for independence among ABC1 voters, at 37 per cent, compared with people in the C2DE bracket, where backing runs at 44 per cent.

Significantly, however, other polls have suggested that more people are moving into the “undecided” category. SNP strategists believe that if they can convince such people of the economic case for independence, they could see a marked swing of support for independence.

Mr Salmond’s preferred question is now the subject of a three-month consultation exercise, before he presents a Referendum Bill to the parliament next year.

The Electoral Commission insisted last night it did not have a view on the fairness of the question. It will only make up its mind after a ten-week consultation, if given the authority to do so by the Scottish Government.

Andy O’Neill, head of the Electoral Commission in Scotland, said last night: “The reported opinion of a former staff member does not reflect our position. We have not offered a view on the proposed referendum question.” He added: “We do not currently have a formal role to assess the question. If, in due course, we are given such a role, we will offer our view based on firm evidence.”

On the YouGov poll published yesterday, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “This poll shows that no politician, including Alex Salmond, should be allowed to fix the question. The independent Electoral Commission must oversee the setting of an impartial ballot to deliver a result that we all have confidence in.”

Deputy leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Anas Sarwar, said: “The Electoral Commission must have a statutory role to rule on the wording of the question.”